{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40a0838d-106b-4c35-b2f6-abe17ab49c42", "symbol": "000592", "name": "Zhongfu Straits (Pingtan) Development Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.639, "architecture_energy": 64.899, "architecture_maturity": 56.404, "architecture_confidence": 95.955, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 24.29, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.7, "rotation_down": 59.67, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.967333, 6.242909, 7.504286, 8.427785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.54, "trend_reference": 9.622333, "distance_from_trend": -0.320331, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.475128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.461411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.771892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.368116, "excess_performance": -0.375516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.320331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15152, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.461411, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.354945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.554942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.368116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 892950374, "relative_activity": 1.154257, "balance": 0.522034, "dry_up": 0.876797, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156551, "annualized_volatility": 0.572875, "from_high_reference": -0.6121, "from_low_reference": 1.232082 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.622333, "fair_value_reference": 4.475128, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.008439, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.004231, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.186207, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.031364, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.011343, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.773723, "worst_return": -0.328431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026923, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.09818, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.963504, "worst_return": -0.38565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.619214, "energy": 86.925243, "activity_lines": [ 5.880667, 6.545273, 8.030762, 8.928796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.83, "volume": 690555439, "typical_volume": 767897586.7, "trend": 9.917667, "fair_value": 4.449103, "relative_strength": -29.855648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.860391, "energy": 73.924792, "activity_lines": [ 5.777333, 6.291455, 7.721333, 8.645699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.54, "volume": 892950374, "typical_volume": 773614673.1, "trend": 9.622333, "fair_value": 4.475128, "relative_strength": -25.771892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.639266, "energy": 64.89896, "activity_lines": [ 5.967333, 6.242909, 7.504286, 8.427785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }