{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40a2da87-3955-4997-a7c2-c3e38bc86698", "symbol": "600714", "name": "Qinghai Jinrui Mining Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.032, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.195, "architecture_energy": 67.588, "architecture_maturity": 23.302, "architecture_confidence": 68.348, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.55, "rotation_up": 16.26, "upward_expansion": 23.43, "deceleration": 43.68, "rotation_down": 73.99, "downward_expansion": 65.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.092667, 16.438182, 19.938953, 20.186022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.4, "trend_reference": 19.649667, "distance_from_trend": -0.216272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.531312, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335494, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.495722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007732, "excess_performance": 0.035472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.216272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335494, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.872756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.577127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110378610, "relative_activity": 1.339065, "balance": 0.822273, "dry_up": 1.009223, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.2501, "annualized_volatility": 0.955429, "from_high_reference": -0.535725, "from_low_reference": 0.412805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.649667, "fair_value_reference": 11.531312, "structural_low": 11.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047588, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08598, "worst_return": 0.009195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.024049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.078161, "worst_return": -0.126259, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.107839, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056704, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051724, "worst_return": -0.267402, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239884, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.040313, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046335, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095177, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.174355, "energy": 51.172355, "activity_lines": [ 16.715333, 21.13, 22.104524, 21.272645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.13, "volume": 89317524, "typical_volume": 97704675.05, "trend": 19.525333, "fair_value": 11.463792, "relative_strength": -16.540607, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.188144, "energy": 65.20173, "activity_lines": [ 14.871333, 19.177455, 21.254191, 20.862172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.19, "volume": 54240624, "typical_volume": 87772146.65, "trend": 19.545, "fair_value": 11.489775, "relative_strength": -16.545122, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.623176, "energy": 71.424002, "activity_lines": [ 13.844667, 17.455273, 20.463572, 20.453441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.4, "volume": 110378610, "typical_volume": 82429590.15, "trend": 19.649667, "fair_value": 11.531312, "relative_strength": -5.495722, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.194767, "energy": 67.58775, "activity_lines": [ 14.092667, 16.438182, 19.938953, 20.186022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }