{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40a43422-7554-4188-a75c-88b20d13d73f", "symbol": "002540", "name": "Jiangsu Asia-Pacific Light Alloy Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.243, "architecture_energy": 52.964, "architecture_maturity": 94.583, "architecture_confidence": 72.31, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.75, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 21.69, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 48.32, "downward_expansion": 74.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.885333, 4.85147, 5.160896, 5.565066 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.09, "trend_reference": 6.130991, "distance_from_trend": -0.169792, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.692789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.88203, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.342377, "excess_performance": -0.349777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098825, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22882, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012576, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.327944, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55597098, "relative_activity": 1.178749, "balance": 0.327944, "dry_up": 1.292905, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068353, "annualized_volatility": 0.345521, "from_high_reference": -0.37005, "from_low_reference": 0.126106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.130991, "fair_value_reference": 5.692789, "structural_low": 4.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.072543, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.015316, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.18421, "worst_return": -0.111046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.176238, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.095428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.456668, "worst_return": 0.087353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.187745, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.181234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197543, "worst_return": 0.123535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03643, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.005468, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012259, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055292, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 4.53, "volume": 64920112, "typical_volume": 49591361.3, "trend": 6.265325, "fair_value": 5.692275, "relative_strength": -29.692862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.840982, "energy": 71.171524, "activity_lines": [ 4.672239, 4.817824, 5.27456, 5.717495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.01, "volume": 69151305, "typical_volume": 48319778.6, "trend": 6.197324, "fair_value": 5.692057, "relative_strength": -20.581282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.287102, "energy": 63.678909, "activity_lines": [ 4.778667, 4.822011, 5.208895, 5.636506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.09, "volume": 55597098, "typical_volume": 47166190.45, "trend": 6.130991, "fair_value": 5.692789, "relative_strength": -22.88203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.242899, "energy": 52.963911, "activity_lines": [ 4.885333, 4.85147, 5.160896, 5.565066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }