{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40a5e333-7a58-4da5-9a4c-4e554f98f8c2", "symbol": "PRTC", "name": "PureTech Health plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.173, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.749, "architecture_energy": 47.514, "architecture_maturity": 17.594, "architecture_confidence": 81.391, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.11, "rotation_up": 9.84, "upward_expansion": 15.73, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 64.68, "downward_expansion": 79.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.133333, 122.410909, 125.835238, 125.628817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 117.4, "trend_reference": 126.226667, "distance_from_trend": -0.069927, "trend_direction": "Stable", "fair_value": 154.370513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239492, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.497373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07267, "excess_performance": -0.123905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239492, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023759, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5988332, "relative_activity": 2.304402, "balance": 0.644429, "dry_up": 1.209279, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079175, "annualized_volatility": 0.383393, "from_high_reference": -0.182451, "from_low_reference": 0.12117 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.226667, "fair_value_reference": 154.370513, "structural_low": 107.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.049672, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.055426, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.257653, "worst_return": -0.105919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013115, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.050793, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.191341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.122302, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.216114, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.354592, "worst_return": -0.413779, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07855, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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128.250477, 127.55785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 120.0, "volume": 2472990, "typical_volume": 2296512.55, "trend": 126.946666, "fair_value": 156.791666, "relative_strength": -11.378047, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.0618, "energy": 13.970077, "activity_lines": [ 124.56, 127.785455, 127.66, 127.105377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 125.0, "volume": 1632139, "typical_volume": 2308387.95, "trend": 126.913333, "fair_value": 156.121795, "relative_strength": -8.10852, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.14185, "energy": 15.877143, "activity_lines": [ 123.96, 126.956364, 127.579048, 126.979785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 123.0, "volume": 2098157, "typical_volume": 2312224.15, "trend": 126.806667, "fair_value": 155.451923, "relative_strength": -10.159882, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.997629, "energy": 24.700909, "activity_lines": [ 123.106667, 125.803637, 127.297143, 126.727312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.0, "volume": 2851341, "typical_volume": 2400881.25, "trend": 126.62, "fair_value": 154.897436, "relative_strength": -13.58018, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.429135, "energy": 39.192015, "activity_lines": [ 121.48, 124.083636, 126.637143, 126.223656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.4, "volume": 5988332, "typical_volume": 2598649.25, "trend": 126.226667, "fair_value": 154.370513, "relative_strength": -14.497373, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.749376, "energy": 47.514154, "activity_lines": [ 120.133333, 122.410909, 125.835238, 125.628817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }