{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40a98c77-90c3-4559-9973-428075c7b59c", "symbol": "FIRST-B", "name": "First Venture Sweden AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.488, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.699, "architecture_energy": 40.375, "architecture_maturity": 6.26, "architecture_confidence": 95.356, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.24, "rotation_up": 16.39, "upward_expansion": 6.77, "deceleration": 42.93, "rotation_down": 56.86, "downward_expansion": 82.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.294333, 1.305909, 1.332429, 1.342312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.28, "trend_reference": 1.352, "distance_from_trend": -0.053254, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.014028, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.364458, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.148313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.065693, "excess_performance": -0.127188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053254, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009121, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.364458, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621582, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201290, "relative_activity": 0.770378, "balance": 0.621582, "dry_up": 0.466206, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076022, "annualized_volatility": 0.256318, "from_high_reference": -0.401869, "from_low_reference": 0.113043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.352, "fair_value_reference": 2.014028, "structural_low": 1.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.021352, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.036554, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.16955, "worst_return": -0.254795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.097533, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.148387, "worst_return": -0.230594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.132132, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.199305, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.08631, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.279476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 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1.345, 1.356545, 1.366929, 1.365473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.28, "volume": 5586, "typical_volume": 293772.2, "trend": 1.3615, "fair_value": 2.071944, "relative_strength": -27.207528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.493682, "energy": 38.041098, "activity_lines": [ 1.322333, 1.341545, 1.359048, 1.360108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.335, "volume": 100882, "typical_volume": 294988.35, "trend": 1.359833, "fair_value": 2.059412, "relative_strength": -21.576355, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.322431, "energy": 29.435554, "activity_lines": [ 1.323667, 1.338, 1.356595, 1.358398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.31, "volume": 29302, "typical_volume": 278310.25, "trend": 1.358167, "fair_value": 2.049348, "relative_strength": -21.415824, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.34665, "energy": 37.595388, "activity_lines": [ 1.318333, 1.330364, 1.35169, 1.355183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.3, "volume": 94270, "typical_volume": 259936.75, "trend": 1.357167, "fair_value": 2.037618, "relative_strength": -22.308347, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.172095, "energy": 38.51028, "activity_lines": [ 1.309, 1.322455, 1.346143, 1.35143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.29, "volume": 162393, "typical_volume": 263665.15, "trend": 1.354167, "fair_value": 2.026912, "relative_strength": -23.002689, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.738845, "energy": 36.163015, "activity_lines": [ 1.302, 1.314182, 1.339643, 1.347097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.28, "volume": 201290, "typical_volume": 261287.2, "trend": 1.352, "fair_value": 2.014028, "relative_strength": -24.148313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.699106, "energy": 40.375478, "activity_lines": [ 1.294333, 1.305909, 1.332429, 1.342312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }