{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "40aaea28-0c18-437e-a379-ac2f18ae0f05",
    "symbol": "XDWM",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Materials UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 72.029,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 48.151,
    "architecture_energy": 19.34,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.997,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.535,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.68,
        "rotation_up": 35.65,
        "upward_expansion": 49.81,
        "deceleration": 83.32,
        "rotation_down": 30.38,
        "downward_expansion": 27.14
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        67.468668,
        67.423637,
        67.584143,
        67.343205
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 70.150002,
    "trend_reference": 66.937001,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.048,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 56.414199,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243481,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.629455,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.074931,
    "excess_performance": -0.095961,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050014,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.243481,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004936,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036295,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053818,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.074931,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.318922,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 24543,
      "relative_activity": 1.00719,
      "balance": 1.318922,
      "dry_up": 0.788069,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029333,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.219669,
      "from_high_reference": -0.017507,
      "from_low_reference": 0.312687
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 66.937001,
      "fair_value_reference": 56.414199,
      "structural_low": 59.5,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.011398,
        "positive_rate": 0.611111,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.611111,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001815,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.052613,
        "worst_return": -0.111953,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.026093,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019738,
        "regime_survival": 0.111111,
        "best_return": 0.09148,
        "worst_return": -0.075909,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.01395,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.060052,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.176237,
        "worst_return": -0.025674,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.054529,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.151862,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.125674,
        "worst_return": -0.022925,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.041932,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011582,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006642,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.026945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004434,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.003924,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024654,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013975,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.010119,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023289,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.05696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.087935,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018579,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.069686,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 5956.45,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 66.650002,
        "volume": 14100,
        "typical_volume": 32217.85,
        "trend": 62.161334,
        "fair_value": 54.76218,
        "relative_strength": 2.003333,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.334638,
        "energy": 49.90455,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.699335,
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          64.613592
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 67.980003,
        "volume": 26907,
        "typical_volume": 33314.05,
        "trend": 62.564667,
        "fair_value": 54.886955,
        "relative_strength": 1.752304,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.483939,
        "energy": 44.766201,
        "activity_lines": [
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          66.547144,
          64.98899
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 67.199997,
        "volume": 53705,
        "typical_volume": 35814.0,
        "trend": 62.930334,
        "fair_value": 55.003494,
        "relative_strength": 0.854718,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.988276,
        "energy": 32.20901,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.511334,
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          66.707906,
          65.288044
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 67.5,
        "volume": 55233,
        "typical_volume": 38494.35,
        "trend": 63.292334,
        "fair_value": 55.130096,
        "relative_strength": 0.458961,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.744528,
        "energy": 28.295752,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.424,
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          66.860763,
          65.582861
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 69.220001,
        "volume": 58033,
        "typical_volume": 40353.2,
        "trend": 63.748667,
        "fair_value": 55.260577,
        "relative_strength": 1.833782,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.525597,
        "energy": 36.70471,
        "activity_lines": [
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          67.138525,
          65.965291
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 67.720001,
        "volume": 8511,
        "typical_volume": 39161.25,
        "trend": 64.180001,
        "fair_value": 55.380833,
        "relative_strength": -0.148059,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.28736,
        "energy": 31.997038,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.024,
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          67.24162,
          66.221506
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 68.529999,
        "volume": 4870,
        "typical_volume": 36842.7,
        "trend": 64.589334,
        "fair_value": 55.499359,
        "relative_strength": -2.092415,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.195921,
        "energy": 35.241391,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 68.309998,
        "volume": 2088,
        "typical_volume": 32551.5,
        "trend": 65.029334,
        "fair_value": 55.628398,
        "relative_strength": -4.86764,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.771406,
        "energy": 39.054355,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 67.440002,
        "volume": 503,
        "typical_volume": 29801.35,
        "trend": 65.358667,
        "fair_value": 55.743654,
        "relative_strength": -3.183163,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.232958,
        "energy": 27.907373,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.046,
          67.966364,
          67.549905,
          66.897721
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 68.489998,
        "volume": 2511,
        "typical_volume": 28796.9,
        "trend": 65.716334,
        "fair_value": 55.871122,
        "relative_strength": -4.516683,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.427855,
        "energy": 30.427468,
        "activity_lines": [
          68.127999,
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          67.660714,
          67.099742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 66.559998,
        "volume": 38197,
        "typical_volume": 28217.5,
        "trend": 66.003334,
        "fair_value": 55.980128,
        "relative_strength": -6.7605,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.34556,
        "energy": 11.877174,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.615332,
          67.840727,
          67.584667,
          67.154172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 65.580002,
        "volume": 9906,
        "typical_volume": 26134.7,
        "trend": 66.226334,
        "fair_value": 56.081603,
        "relative_strength": -6.778672,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -1.263215,
        "energy": 10.040148,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.853333,
          67.419818,
          67.422857,
          67.126861
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 66.760002,
        "volume": 25704,
        "typical_volume": 25360.45,
        "trend": 66.467001,
        "fair_value": 56.181539,
        "relative_strength": -4.922832,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 10.272586,
        "energy": 14.235543,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.681334,
          67.257091,
          67.397905,
          67.161291
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 65.82,
        "volume": 16661,
        "typical_volume": 24133.15,
        "trend": 66.683334,
        "fair_value": 56.281667,
        "relative_strength": -6.879199,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.811316,
        "energy": 23.643397,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.299334,
          66.931455,
          67.285476,
          67.119549
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 70.150002,
        "volume": 24543,
        "typical_volume": 24367.8,
        "trend": 66.937001,
        "fair_value": 56.414199,
        "relative_strength": -3.629455,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.150973,
        "energy": 19.340474,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.468668,
          67.423637,
          67.584143,
          67.343205
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}