{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40b4b2d3-83a9-47c9-8301-8b0c3995a200", "symbol": "EUNM", "name": "iShares MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.535, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.507, "architecture_energy": 23.967, "architecture_maturity": 65.282, "architecture_confidence": 87.853, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.28, "rotation_up": 18.29, "upward_expansion": 52.36, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 35.38, "downward_expansion": 18.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.099333, 54.965891, 54.782148, 53.492536 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 54.584, "trend_reference": 51.810767, "distance_from_trend": 0.053526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.780436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372132, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.891283, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130314, "excess_performance": 0.065674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076625, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081878, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048913, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130314, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.902846, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 514122, "relative_activity": 1.77176, "balance": 0.902846, "dry_up": 1.552244, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043805, "annualized_volatility": 0.223452, "from_high_reference": -0.073654, "from_low_reference": 0.370287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.810767, "fair_value_reference": 39.780436, "structural_low": 45.229, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015246, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.023246, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.132448, "worst_return": -0.020008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.056358, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.008976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238039, "worst_return": -0.005703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064171, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049946, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.337376, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066051, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098974, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.977133, "energy": 23.019586, "activity_lines": [ 54.767867, 55.560473, 54.585705, 53.151587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.537998, "volume": 586716, "typical_volume": 285307.55, "trend": 51.5517, "fair_value": 39.634571, "relative_strength": 6.091463, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.462938, "energy": 23.917886, "activity_lines": [ 54.152266, 55.159273, 54.648124, 53.296903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.584, "volume": 514122, "typical_volume": 290175.85, "trend": 51.810767, "fair_value": 39.780436, "relative_strength": 4.891283, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.506749, "energy": 23.966645, "activity_lines": [ 54.099333, 54.965891, 54.782148, 53.492536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }