{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40baacb2-aa5a-4a52-aecb-885c052dc909", "symbol": "2100", "name": "Wafrah for Industry and Development Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.964, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.58, "architecture_energy": 13.965, "architecture_maturity": 16.304, "architecture_confidence": 76.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.6, "rotation_up": 31.19, "upward_expansion": 59.68, "deceleration": 85.57, "rotation_down": 24.71, "downward_expansion": 14.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.228, 21.350546, 21.036095, 20.815269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.25, "trend_reference": 20.776, "distance_from_trend": 0.022815, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.198013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.359901, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.909337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011168, "excess_performance": 0.020661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022815, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024234, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.359901, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011422, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071869, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011168, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.125936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 784833, "relative_activity": 0.644038, "balance": 1.125936, "dry_up": 0.855606, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091041, "annualized_volatility": 0.357619, "from_high_reference": -0.285954, "from_low_reference": 0.23403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.776, "fair_value_reference": 33.198013, "structural_low": 17.219999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.028757, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.050066, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.166407, "worst_return": -0.376119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.094145, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.082491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.267496, "worst_return": -0.285373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.099885, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.127145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.500778, "worst_return": -0.467574, "sufficient": true 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032147, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0533, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.393484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", 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22.950001, "volume": 2909069, "typical_volume": 1050689.4, "trend": 20.739667, "fair_value": 33.555064, "relative_strength": 2.011114, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.862759, "energy": 33.99483, "activity_lines": [ 21.960667, 21.066909, 20.801381, 20.699118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.030001, "volume": 1887407, "typical_volume": 1135074.15, "trend": 20.758, "fair_value": 33.466154, "relative_strength": -0.756496, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.282359, "energy": 44.047046, "activity_lines": [ 22.270667, 21.304728, 20.957095, 20.782366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.92, "volume": 831913, "typical_volume": 1163406.65, "trend": 20.755333, "fair_value": 33.373333, "relative_strength": -5.931329, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.500151, "energy": 50.245732, "activity_lines": [ 22.003334, 21.333637, 20.991429, 20.792817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.6, "volume": 666456, "typical_volume": 1181490.65, "trend": 20.746667, "fair_value": 33.277821, "relative_strength": -5.0716, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.034702, "energy": 27.187469, "activity_lines": [ 21.488667, 21.287637, 20.987333, 20.782796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.25, "volume": 784833, "typical_volume": 1218612.35, "trend": 20.776, "fair_value": 33.198013, "relative_strength": -3.909337, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.579643, "energy": 13.964567, "activity_lines": [ 21.228, 21.350546, 21.036095, 20.815269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }