{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40bba046-2c82-4f39-8f0e-a45af4851a28", "symbol": "688685", "name": "Jiangsu Maixinlin Aviation Science and Technology Corp.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.011, "architecture_energy": 38.746, "architecture_maturity": 27.56, "architecture_confidence": 82.796, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.34, "rotation_up": 15.52, "upward_expansion": 9.28, "deceleration": 40.15, "rotation_down": 57.52, "downward_expansion": 73.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.001999, 44.265257, 45.683891, 46.128485 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 43.0, "trend_reference": 47.487462, "distance_from_trend": -0.094498, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.735001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.506472, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186223, "excess_performance": -0.143019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094498, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069181, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082169, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.686213, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31332951, "relative_activity": 1.477987, "balance": 0.686213, "dry_up": 1.542592, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207033, "annualized_volatility": 0.892505, "from_high_reference": -0.376812, "from_low_reference": 0.477663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.487462, "fair_value_reference": 39.735001, "structural_low": 29.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.008854, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.008506, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.289667, "worst_return": -0.190484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02069, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010496, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.490745, "worst_return": -0.180913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.135475, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.064987, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.622959, "worst_return": -0.133907, "sufficient": false }, 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"relative_strength": -31.978138, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.846915, "energy": 45.919202, "activity_lines": [ 42.635333, 44.498534, 45.866547, 46.533534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.709999, "volume": 44771564, "typical_volume": 20217389.1, "trend": 47.903462, "fair_value": 39.55604, "relative_strength": -7.324557, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.166797, "energy": 35.89839, "activity_lines": [ 42.695332, 44.649652, 45.950862, 46.444838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.0, "volume": 31332951, "typical_volume": 21199754.1, "trend": 47.487462, "fair_value": 39.735001, "relative_strength": -16.506472, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.011391, "energy": 38.745617, "activity_lines": [ 42.001999, 44.265257, 45.683891, 46.128485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }