{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40c16a7f-fa8c-4349-9be3-5b2ae97317e1", "symbol": "XDUD", "name": "Xtrackers DAX ESG Screened UCITS ETF 2C USD Hedged", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.439, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.446, "architecture_energy": 92.805, "architecture_maturity": 28.896, "architecture_confidence": 78.058, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 72.89, "upward_expansion": 94.8, "deceleration": 44.9, "rotation_down": 17.22, "downward_expansion": 21.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.726666, 43.288546, 42.604262, 41.940247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.884998, "trend_reference": 41.323167, "distance_from_trend": 0.086195, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.866474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28734, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.078335, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094089, "excess_performance": 0.011206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028396, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28734, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070491, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000783, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.674068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 817, "relative_activity": 0.135629, "balance": 0.674068, "dry_up": 1.158654, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016409, "annualized_volatility": 0.175983, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.19534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.323167, "fair_value_reference": 34.866474, "structural_low": 37.549999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.007588, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006608, "regime_survival": 0.675, "best_return": 0.086077, "worst_return": -0.106803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.020476, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.001963, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099378, "worst_return": -0.108406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.057595, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.019141, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.127677, "worst_return": -0.190725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 3818, "typical_volume": 10090.75, "trend": 41.090834, "fair_value": 34.63843, "relative_strength": -3.670223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.308394, "energy": 59.526353, "activity_lines": [ 42.747334, 42.691819, 42.013143, 41.523893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.855, "volume": 7427, "typical_volume": 6274.35, "trend": 41.195667, "fair_value": 34.748718, "relative_strength": -1.019956, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.452495, "energy": 70.790091, "activity_lines": [ 43.118001, 42.911273, 42.271119, 41.702226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.884998, "volume": 817, "typical_volume": 6023.8, "trend": 41.323167, "fair_value": 34.866474, "relative_strength": 0.078335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.446289, "energy": 92.804544, "activity_lines": [ 43.726666, 43.288546, 42.604262, 41.940247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }