{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40c1b19c-cb7f-4be2-b7b3-957600b939ab", "symbol": "ADC", "name": "ACDC Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.297, "architecture_energy": 36.837, "architecture_maturity": 40.864, "architecture_confidence": 90.77, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.27, "rotation_up": 24.21, "upward_expansion": 4.58, "deceleration": 53.4, "rotation_down": 47.45, "downward_expansion": 77.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0448, 0.044964, 0.047286, 0.048919 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.044, "trend_reference": 0.051171, "distance_from_trend": -0.140146, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.057543, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.126573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137255, "excess_performance": -0.200961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140146, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085758, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093809, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184368, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.477979, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18712, "relative_activity": 0.041518, "balance": 1.477979, "dry_up": 0.901076, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111516, "annualized_volatility": 0.588728, "from_high_reference": -0.725, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.051171, "fair_value_reference": 0.057543, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012182, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016336, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.23913, "worst_return": -0.188679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.058621, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.051651, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.44186, "worst_return": -0.188679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.105472, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048051, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.150943, "worst_return": 0.06, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"trend": 0.052638, "fair_value": 0.058402, "relative_strength": -17.443841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.678717, "energy": 43.325665, "activity_lines": [ 0.045133, 0.046257, 0.049308, 0.050796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.048, "volume": 64941, "typical_volume": 473816.5, "trend": 0.052505, "fair_value": 0.058203, "relative_strength": -17.515255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.989437, "energy": 37.537723, "activity_lines": [ 0.046133, 0.046255, 0.049035, 0.050497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.044, "volume": 1109183, "typical_volume": 490733.95, "trend": 0.052238, "fair_value": 0.057972, "relative_strength": -23.961149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.135155, "energy": 33.585434, "activity_lines": [ 0.0456, 0.0456, 0.048401, 0.049948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.044, "volume": 431617, "typical_volume": 475458.35, "trend": 0.051705, "fair_value": 0.057728, "relative_strength": -25.327886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.489341, "energy": 29.070236, "activity_lines": [ 0.045333, 0.045218, 0.047825, 0.049416 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.044, "volume": 18712, "typical_volume": 450698.15, "trend": 0.051171, "fair_value": 0.057543, "relative_strength": -27.126573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.29705, "energy": 36.837173, "activity_lines": [ 0.0448, 0.044964, 0.047286, 0.048919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }