{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40c53037-2479-442b-93fd-20e6da87591e", "symbol": "TEK", "name": "Thorney Technologies Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.861, "architecture_energy": 45.474, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.544, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.86, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 23.09, "deceleration": 46.73, "rotation_down": 38.02, "downward_expansion": 59.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0933, 0.092945, 0.093671, 0.098368 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.09, "trend_reference": 0.10635, "distance_from_trend": -0.153738, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.129821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.306735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.540494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307692, "excess_performance": -0.371398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153738, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.306735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.265405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.303492, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204060, "relative_activity": 0.342949, "balance": 0.303492, "dry_up": 0.781633, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040598, "annualized_volatility": 0.281689, "from_high_reference": -0.37931, "from_low_reference": 0.028571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.10635, "fair_value_reference": 0.129821, "structural_low": 0.0875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.014925, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": -0.024992, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.210526, "worst_return": -0.242424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.073171, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.086378, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.094235, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.153314, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.08, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.092036, 0.09789, 0.104585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.092, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 653673.1, "trend": 0.111167, "fair_value": 0.132638, "relative_strength": -22.909566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.08196, "energy": 80.946697, "activity_lines": [ 0.090667, 0.091782, 0.096638, 0.103299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0965, "volume": 44273, "typical_volume": 619719.15, "trend": 0.110217, "fair_value": 0.132071, "relative_strength": -18.637895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.856515, "energy": 55.550479, "activity_lines": [ 0.0927, 0.0924, 0.095971, 0.102353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.094, "volume": 483496, "typical_volume": 605985.55, "trend": 0.10935, "fair_value": 0.131487, "relative_strength": -20.383856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.793811, "energy": 48.68667, "activity_lines": [ 0.093467, 0.092591, 0.095226, 0.101306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.095, "volume": 672783, "typical_volume": 631071.25, "trend": 0.108517, "fair_value": 0.13091, "relative_strength": -19.030067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.156515, "energy": 41.230925, "activity_lines": [ 0.0943, 0.093, 0.094724, 0.100381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.095, "volume": 500000, "typical_volume": 615592.3, "trend": 0.107683, "fair_value": 0.130365, "relative_strength": -20.434416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.823966, "energy": 34.332844, "activity_lines": [ 0.0948, 0.093409, 0.094364, 0.099509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.09, "volume": 204060, "typical_volume": 595016.45, "trend": 0.10635, "fair_value": 0.129821, "relative_strength": -26.540494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.860718, "energy": 45.474138, "activity_lines": [ 0.0933, 0.092945, 0.093671, 0.098368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }