{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40c7d749-3095-4d63-90c9-f86cb81776bd", "symbol": "QSI", "name": "QuantumSi Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.219, "architecture_energy": 57.214, "architecture_maturity": 14.874, "architecture_confidence": 88.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.21, "rotation_up": 10.75, "upward_expansion": 11.86, "deceleration": 38.39, "rotation_down": 68.09, "downward_expansion": 87.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.78396, 0.832382, 0.893126, 0.903916 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.8144, "trend_reference": 0.94251, "distance_from_trend": -0.135924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.427902, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.429653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.099327, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.235305, "excess_performance": -0.422759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.429653, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022451, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.390993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06133, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13401083, "relative_activity": 0.552552, "balance": 0.621862, "dry_up": 0.535924, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205597, "annualized_volatility": 0.849129, "from_high_reference": -0.73729, "from_low_reference": 0.18029 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.94251, "fair_value_reference": 1.427902, "structural_low": 0.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.020339, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.084876, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.62718, "worst_return": -0.354305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.191644, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.863085, "worst_return": -0.393033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085526, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.083809, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.861789, "worst_return": -0.496689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.184211, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.167224, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.211679, "worst_return": -0.612245, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.377451, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.577236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.317757, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307018, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02907, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004386, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"volume": 13040018, "typical_volume": 25135536.4, "trend": 0.98628, "fair_value": 1.471191, "relative_strength": -39.209715, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.285911, "energy": 36.47486, "activity_lines": [ 0.876173, 0.92914, 0.934879, 0.943681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7701, "volume": 11694291, "typical_volume": 24827048.0, "trend": 0.97095, "fair_value": 1.454012, "relative_strength": -40.809653, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.325919, "energy": 52.899209, "activity_lines": [ 0.833587, 0.894138, 0.920719, 0.929734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7124, "volume": 13855851, "typical_volume": 24327038.55, "trend": 0.95603, "fair_value": 1.436848, "relative_strength": -44.642278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.89203, "energy": 62.594973, "activity_lines": [ 0.787027, 0.850827, 0.9015, 0.913053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8144, "volume": 13401083, "typical_volume": 24253076.25, "trend": 0.94251, "fair_value": 1.427902, "relative_strength": -39.099327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.219373, "energy": 57.214191, "activity_lines": [ 0.78396, 0.832382, 0.893126, 0.903916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }