{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40ca667f-3d12-482e-8e31-1e06f96b72d4", "symbol": "000786", "name": "Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.785, "architecture_energy": 54.566, "architecture_maturity": 89.918, "architecture_confidence": 83.181, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 28.91, "upward_expansion": 14.56, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 46.66, "downward_expansion": 76.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.626667, 18.657019, 20.249977, 21.671418 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.190001, "trend_reference": 23.45428, "distance_from_trend": -0.224449, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.192459, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.305525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.376492, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.348029, "excess_performance": -0.355428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224449, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.305525, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.348029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.632904, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117490668, "relative_activity": 1.653169, "balance": 0.632904, "dry_up": 1.664861, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090782, "annualized_volatility": 0.272586, "from_high_reference": -0.390007, "from_low_reference": 0.100423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.45428, "fair_value_reference": 26.192459, "structural_low": 16.530001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.004563, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.010184, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.257634, "worst_return": -0.198144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.074654, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.052107, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.273116, "worst_return": -0.141664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025829, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.047653, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.237705, "worst_return": -0.139012, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 18.127334, 19.231756, 21.284526, 22.648482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.0, "volume": 114488003, "typical_volume": 67769291.1, "trend": 23.862613, "fair_value": 26.252235, "relative_strength": -22.961643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.759937, "energy": 65.215089, "activity_lines": [ 18.347334, 18.98298, 20.917867, 22.321282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.280001, "volume": 118952249, "typical_volume": 68818469.65, "trend": 23.68028, "fair_value": 26.230956, "relative_strength": -19.846614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.746331, "energy": 59.844466, "activity_lines": [ 18.708667, 18.885216, 20.619636, 22.025629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.190001, "volume": 117490668, "typical_volume": 71069962.2, "trend": 23.45428, "fair_value": 26.192459, "relative_strength": -27.376492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.784939, "energy": 54.565514, "activity_lines": [ 18.626667, 18.657019, 20.249977, 21.671418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }