{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40d0ef12-24a9-4995-9ca4-7270e6c0ef5e", "symbol": "XOM3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long Exxon (XOM) ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.301, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.241, "architecture_energy": 27.279, "architecture_maturity": 61.102, "architecture_confidence": 42.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.57, "rotation_up": 45.2, "upward_expansion": 27.07, "deceleration": 41.22, "rotation_down": 22.56, "downward_expansion": 52.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.3, 25.290909, 25.903334, 27.271398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 27.299999, "trend_reference": 28.036667, "distance_from_trend": -0.026275, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.717042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384589, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.850899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077703, "excess_performance": -0.128938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026275, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115074, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384589, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072452, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.128509, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077703, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.625915, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186, "relative_activity": 0.065411, "balance": 1.625915, "dry_up": 0.777989, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138067, "annualized_volatility": 0.927704, "from_high_reference": -0.426471, "from_low_reference": 1.275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.036667, "fair_value_reference": 19.717042, "structural_low": 19.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045492, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.014626, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.078231, "worst_return": -0.231309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.190476, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.135253, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.235592, "worst_return": -0.278541, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.040952, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.190476, "worst_return": -0.108571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.061224, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061224, "worst_return": 0.061224, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.369716, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.121633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.198529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.778502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.305648, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.480198, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02847, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.440001, "volume": 326, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 20.282499, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": 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27.141398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.200001, "volume": 5486, "typical_volume": 3134.95, "trend": 26.883333, "fair_value": 19.562154, "relative_strength": 10.523463, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.576323, "energy": 57.837644, "activity_lines": [ 22.053334, 23.247273, 25.869048, 27.054194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.9, "volume": 1274, "typical_volume": 2991.7, "trend": 27.338333, "fair_value": 19.637234, "relative_strength": 27.997634, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.217442, "energy": 19.165888, "activity_lines": [ 24.866667, 24.16, 26.008096, 27.248817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.1, "volume": 1903, "typical_volume": 3055.75, "trend": 27.711667, "fair_value": 19.68419, "relative_strength": 17.685496, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.24694, "energy": 21.824104, "activity_lines": [ 26.48, 24.778182, 25.981429, 27.297957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.299999, "volume": 186, "typical_volume": 2843.55, "trend": 28.036667, "fair_value": 19.717042, "relative_strength": 12.850899, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.240863, "energy": 27.279302, "activity_lines": [ 27.3, 25.290909, 25.903334, 27.271398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }