{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40d4350b-22bd-4711-84ad-9a7f02459d18", "symbol": "006203", "name": "Yuanta/P-shares MSCI Taiwan ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.064, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.915, "architecture_energy": 27.93, "architecture_maturity": 71.319, "architecture_confidence": 86.637, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.18, "rotation_up": 26.15, "upward_expansion": 58.38, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.86, "downward_expansion": 22.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 184.877949, 186.935485, 183.179318, 174.170622 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 186.350006, "trend_reference": 161.482835, "distance_from_trend": 0.153993, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 96.501009, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.931068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.593525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.408009, "excess_performance": 0.028697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153993, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183226, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.931068, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136822, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025935, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.408009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.077646, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82377, "relative_activity": 0.899447, "balance": 1.077646, "dry_up": 1.222934, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052988, "annualized_volatility": 0.288631, "from_high_reference": -0.057293, "from_low_reference": 1.030861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 161.482835, "fair_value_reference": 96.501009, "structural_low": 128.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007214, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.202239, "worst_return": -0.024631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045726, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302109, "worst_return": -0.06722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.079137, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085817, "worst_return": -0.149053, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117064, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.766132, "energy": 54.599233, "activity_lines": [ 188.267371, 188.281601, 178.94211, 168.738017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 183.850006, "volume": 94256, "typical_volume": 81289.0, "trend": 156.937754, "fair_value": 94.869777, "relative_strength": 2.832416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.94559, "energy": 46.720614, "activity_lines": [ 186.24434, 187.802593, 180.465703, 170.628756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 184.75, "volume": 183076, "typical_volume": 89184.0, "trend": 159.26334, "fair_value": 95.683376, "relative_strength": 4.45326, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.621344, "energy": 33.669985, "activity_lines": [ 185.197974, 187.291766, 181.857391, 172.423095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 186.350006, "volume": 82377, "typical_volume": 91586.3, "trend": 161.482835, "fair_value": 96.501009, "relative_strength": 2.593525, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.914599, "energy": 27.929681, "activity_lines": [ 184.877949, 186.935485, 183.179318, 174.170622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }