{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40d8795b-e559-4507-a2b7-99419abe6f2f", "symbol": "TRMB", "name": "Trimble Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.015, "architecture_energy": 19.676, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.035, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.72, "rotation_up": 34.02, "upward_expansion": 22.09, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 17.21, "downward_expansion": 53.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.057333, 54.255818, 55.496762, 57.948871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 59.51, "trend_reference": 61.354167, "distance_from_trend": -0.030058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.074712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.822328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.100378, "excess_performance": -0.287832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126542, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07124, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100378, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096553, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11744227, "relative_activity": 0.963808, "balance": 1.096553, "dry_up": 1.016853, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071174, "annualized_volatility": 0.332468, "from_high_reference": -0.296905, "from_low_reference": 0.241861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.354167, "fair_value_reference": 64.074712, "structural_low": 47.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.009851, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.003198, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.194784, "worst_return": -0.170823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.001611, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.028765, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.406583, "worst_return": -0.173049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05449, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.055093, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.43969, "worst_return": -0.163018, 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"fair_value": 64.044391, "relative_strength": -31.862674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.568572, "energy": 38.538112, "activity_lines": [ 52.711333, 52.378727, 55.581452, 58.513387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.58, "volume": 13863292, "typical_volume": 12135602.5, "trend": 62.0575, "fair_value": 64.049583, "relative_strength": -26.69607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.174172, "energy": 27.647694, "activity_lines": [ 54.092, 53.053091, 55.376048, 58.113226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.51, "volume": 11744227, "typical_volume": 12185234.1, "trend": 61.354167, "fair_value": 64.074712, "relative_strength": -25.822328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.014823, "energy": 19.676421, "activity_lines": [ 56.057333, 54.255818, 55.496762, 57.948871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }