{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40d9719b-98e3-4891-b43b-aa92b605f409", "symbol": "LBIRD", "name": "Lumibird SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.395, "architecture_energy": 53.211, "architecture_maturity": 31.19, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.04, "rotation_up": 60.9, "upward_expansion": 85.26, "deceleration": 48.69, "rotation_down": 18.84, "downward_expansion": 9.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.946667, 26.448182, 25.423461, 24.557785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.0, "trend_reference": 23.686791, "distance_from_trend": 0.139876, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.085927, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.789748, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.51605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.224639, "excess_performance": 0.171327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088903, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.789748, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.281588, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.155161, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081003, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.224639, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.519462, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97655, "relative_activity": 0.663432, "balance": 2.519462, "dry_up": 1.105281, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078209, "annualized_volatility": 0.386488, "from_high_reference": -0.052632, "from_low_reference": 0.741708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.686791, "fair_value_reference": 15.085927, "structural_low": 19.192979, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.006807, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006856, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.526915, "worst_return": -0.105991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050672, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.031995, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.837321, "worst_return": -0.016736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.212842, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.196084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.933014, "worst_return": 0.068966, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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51.602683, "activity_lines": [ 25.806667, 25.317606, 24.158509, 23.579352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.25, "volume": 202476, "typical_volume": 156939.7, "trend": 23.081798, "fair_value": 14.858286, "relative_strength": 23.627118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.398481, "energy": 62.25186, "activity_lines": [ 26.46, 25.775091, 24.534744, 23.863266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.25, "volume": 184405, "typical_volume": 155547.55, "trend": 23.310995, "fair_value": 14.936685, "relative_strength": 22.443749, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.565363, "energy": 68.257435, "activity_lines": [ 26.896667, 26.125455, 24.886673, 24.132183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.4, "volume": 166239, "typical_volume": 151026.85, "trend": 23.492174, "fair_value": 15.00913, "relative_strength": 16.168602, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.398158, "energy": 65.007675, "activity_lines": [ 26.876667, 26.246364, 25.138968, 24.331473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.0, "volume": 97655, "typical_volume": 147196.7, "trend": 23.686791, "fair_value": 15.085927, "relative_strength": 15.51605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.395018, "energy": 53.210608, "activity_lines": [ 26.946667, 26.448182, 25.423461, 24.557785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }