{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40df16f8-c1a5-4cad-8bc1-1c64f694a568", "symbol": "NRST", "name": "Neurosoft Software Production S.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.477, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.024, "architecture_energy": 30.127, "architecture_maturity": 58.833, "architecture_confidence": 75.172, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.97, "rotation_up": 26.7, "upward_expansion": 60.49, "deceleration": 88.16, "rotation_down": 32.12, "downward_expansion": 21.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.637, 0.641636, 0.632905, 0.626247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.64, "trend_reference": 0.625667, "distance_from_trend": 0.022909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.646878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010633, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.970513, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007874, "excess_performance": -0.163018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022909, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020355, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073094, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007874, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.333333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.333333, "dry_up": 0.714286, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019231, "annualized_volatility": 0.194464, "from_high_reference": -0.272727, "from_low_reference": 0.122807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.625667, "fair_value_reference": 0.646878, "structural_low": 0.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.057897, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.079668, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.224806, "worst_return": -0.116438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048421, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.104264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112903, "worst_return": -0.226415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.138096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201613, "worst_return": -0.221698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": 41.598443, "energy": 73.993524, "activity_lines": [ 0.649, 0.639364, 0.622048, 0.623677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.655, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 6350.0, "trend": 0.633833, "fair_value": 0.649442, "relative_strength": -16.283249, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.959875, "energy": 74.688611, "activity_lines": [ 0.651, 0.644455, 0.626095, 0.624968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.645, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": 6650.0, "trend": 0.632333, "fair_value": 0.648801, "relative_strength": -15.861547, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.203035, "energy": 49.010007, "activity_lines": [ 0.649667, 0.646364, 0.628905, 0.625688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.63, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 4800.0, "trend": 0.630333, "fair_value": 0.647968, "relative_strength": -17.215917, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.243629, "energy": 34.438177, "activity_lines": [ 0.643333, 0.644727, 0.629976, 0.625538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.63, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4300.0, "trend": 0.628667, "fair_value": 0.647391, "relative_strength": -17.254973, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.293581, "energy": 18.964434, "activity_lines": [ 0.638, 0.642545, 0.631, 0.625516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.64, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3850.0, "trend": 0.625667, "fair_value": 0.646878, "relative_strength": -17.970513, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.024285, "energy": 30.127357, "activity_lines": [ 0.637, 0.641636, 0.632905, 0.626247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }