{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40e0f7c3-4b5c-4615-93d2-f8d6ab2b1335", "symbol": "TSSI", "name": "TSS, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.462, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.515, "architecture_energy": 41.007, "architecture_maturity": 8.744, "architecture_confidence": 65.223, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.56, "rotation_up": 19.76, "upward_expansion": 15.41, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 61.06, "downward_expansion": 57.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.402667, 10.861636, 11.860048, 11.896258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.26, "trend_reference": 11.66, "distance_from_trend": -0.034305, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.453226, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.098282, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.240088, "excess_performance": 0.052634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075679, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134234, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.240088, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805633, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3224509, "relative_activity": 0.508217, "balance": 0.805633, "dry_up": 0.561563, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201239, "annualized_volatility": 1.04211, "from_high_reference": -0.482774, "from_low_reference": 0.638986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.66, "fair_value_reference": 8.453226, "structural_low": 7.42, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.121905, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.115906, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.897503, "worst_return": -0.148211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.122693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.501603, "worst_return": -0.51873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.188653, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.879808, "worst_return": -0.258765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191062, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.369777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.10974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.140952, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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12.753095, 12.229591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.76, "volume": 4057410, "typical_volume": 7593169.7, "trend": 11.408333, "fair_value": 8.262791, "relative_strength": -33.942148, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.465617, "energy": 31.185873, "activity_lines": [ 10.959333, 11.869818, 12.48881, 12.128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.7, "volume": 4158076, "typical_volume": 7609584.3, "trend": 11.494667, "fair_value": 8.322406, "relative_strength": -30.963512, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.690024, "energy": 43.15082, "activity_lines": [ 10.373333, 11.396, 12.221524, 12.017785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.92, "volume": 2811917, "typical_volume": 6597160.55, "trend": 11.569, "fair_value": 8.383419, "relative_strength": -27.427212, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.265938, "energy": 42.073607, "activity_lines": [ 10.118, 10.988, 11.972143, 11.916194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.26, "volume": 3224509, "typical_volume": 6344753.45, "trend": 11.66, "fair_value": 8.453226, "relative_strength": -20.098282, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.514891, "energy": 41.00669, "activity_lines": [ 10.402667, 10.861636, 11.860048, 11.896258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }