{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40e660bc-be7a-479d-878e-0b913537feaf", "symbol": "ALAR", "name": "Alarum Technologies Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.68, "architecture_energy": 66.348, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.101, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.04, "rotation_up": 29.43, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.2, "rotation_down": 60.9, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.596133, 0.975509, 58.8173, 98.26691 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.595, "trend_reference": 147.695933, "distance_from_trend": -0.995971, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 419.884474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.998583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.812087, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.9972, "excess_performance": -1.0261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.995971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421383, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.998583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.542933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.998121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.477428, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.9972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.383547, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8267126, "relative_activity": 2.499531, "balance": 1.383547, "dry_up": 1.464727, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 50.984486, "annualized_volatility": 6.530936, "from_high_reference": -0.999021, "from_low_reference": 0.157588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.695933, "fair_value_reference": 419.884474, "structural_low": 0.514, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.05375, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.058413, "regime_survival": 0.925, "best_return": 0.592672, "worst_return": -0.987065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.198089, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.219963, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.880526, "worst_return": -0.98696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.435274, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.360945, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.006372, "worst_return": -0.990352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.929334, "energy": 84.861342, "activity_lines": [ 1.044333, 27.903309, 95.003295, 130.50452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.614, "volume": 2388209, "typical_volume": 2873874.75, "trend": 167.558833, "fair_value": 421.01516, "relative_strength": -99.823896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.486342, "energy": 68.04709, "activity_lines": [ 0.7796, 15.054018, 81.828671, 119.196927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.518, "volume": 3075414, "typical_volume": 2988297.0, "trend": 157.969433, "fair_value": 420.436429, "relative_strength": -99.842597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.951648, "energy": 66.860762, "activity_lines": [ 0.6118, 6.072473, 69.794838, 108.420099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.595, "volume": 8267126, "typical_volume": 3307470.25, "trend": 147.695933, "fair_value": 419.884474, "relative_strength": -99.812087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.67955, "energy": 66.347616, "activity_lines": [ 0.596133, 0.975509, 58.8173, 98.26691 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }