{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40e75ff0-b206-4dd4-b6e4-10fdded29b80", "symbol": "300150", "name": "Beijing Century Real Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.315, "architecture_energy": 54.747, "architecture_maturity": 87.362, "architecture_confidence": 91.691, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 9.79, "deceleration": 60.42, "rotation_down": 48.33, "downward_expansion": 80.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.945333, 3.965091, 4.240905, 4.547462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.12, "trend_reference": 4.943667, "distance_from_trend": -0.16661, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.507115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.009872, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.272085, "excess_performance": -0.279485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16661, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08589, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227649, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.249972, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34758404, "relative_activity": 0.910795, "balance": 0.249972, "dry_up": 0.961924, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081404, "annualized_volatility": 0.337251, "from_high_reference": -0.399417, "from_low_reference": 0.147632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.943667, "fair_value_reference": 4.507115, "structural_low": 3.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.025907, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.013778, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.196185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033943, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.025563, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.723485, "worst_return": -0.281768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.155164, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.159778, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.056818, "worst_return": -0.21194, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 43108666.5, "trend": 5.082, "fair_value": 4.516731, "relative_strength": -28.041018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.298301, "energy": 72.09556, "activity_lines": [ 3.944667, 4.077273, 4.459667, 4.761118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.66, "volume": 38562002, "typical_volume": 40681366.75, "trend": 5.027, "fair_value": 4.510769, "relative_strength": -31.126761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.714084, "energy": 76.015294, "activity_lines": [ 3.836, 3.971455, 4.351286, 4.669376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.0, "volume": 33579557, "typical_volume": 39527607.45, "trend": 4.982667, "fair_value": 4.508141, "relative_strength": -22.959267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.885311, "energy": 63.382623, "activity_lines": [ 3.872667, 3.949636, 4.286048, 4.603118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.12, "volume": 34758404, "typical_volume": 38162687.65, "trend": 4.943667, "fair_value": 4.507115, "relative_strength": -24.009872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.315038, "energy": 54.747254, "activity_lines": [ 3.945333, 3.965091, 4.240905, 4.547462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }