{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40e80012-dcc0-40e9-b814-a1f8d78bf685", "symbol": "ALSGD", "name": "SpineGuard SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.195, "architecture_energy": 35.095, "architecture_maturity": 77.895, "architecture_confidence": 64.031, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.38, "rotation_up": 25.63, "upward_expansion": 16.38, "deceleration": 66.26, "rotation_down": 43.39, "downward_expansion": 68.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.08552, 0.085296, 0.089505, 0.095558 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0865, "trend_reference": 0.102593, "distance_from_trend": -0.156865, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.173018, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.500053, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.806428, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.233156, "excess_performance": -0.286467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156865, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101267, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.500053, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005539, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15989, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.233156, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.667448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3675635, "relative_activity": 2.115401, "balance": 0.667448, "dry_up": 1.281809, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110093, "annualized_volatility": 0.372722, "from_high_reference": -0.710702, "from_low_reference": 0.153333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.102593, "fair_value_reference": 0.173018, "structural_low": 0.075, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.047965, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.007993, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.946565, "worst_return": -0.308512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.100059, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.687898, "worst_return": -0.342718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072108, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.563694, "worst_return": -0.461164, "sufficient": true }, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0835, "volume": 2691486, "typical_volume": 1755163.45, "trend": 0.105133, "fair_value": 0.182588, "relative_strength": -23.674963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.960554, "energy": 68.033772, "activity_lines": [ 0.084267, 0.087615, 0.09477, 0.100409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0835, "volume": 1734430, "typical_volume": 1692251.2, "trend": 0.104397, "fair_value": 0.179802, "relative_strength": -23.635315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.748357, "energy": 68.970423, "activity_lines": [ 0.083633, 0.086253, 0.092988, 0.099013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.089, "volume": 892364, "typical_volume": 1651401.95, "trend": 0.104097, "fair_value": 0.177591, "relative_strength": -18.91073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.82296, "energy": 51.554373, "activity_lines": [ 0.085133, 0.086227, 0.091918, 0.09802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0832, "volume": 2606448, "typical_volume": 1627488.5, "trend": 0.103763, "fair_value": 0.175202, "relative_strength": -25.286351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.766093, "energy": 48.956911, "activity_lines": [ 0.084767, 0.085345, 0.090459, 0.096671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0865, "volume": 3675635, "typical_volume": 1737559.3, "trend": 0.102593, "fair_value": 0.173018, "relative_strength": -23.806428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.195002, "energy": 35.095243, "activity_lines": [ 0.08552, 0.085296, 0.089505, 0.095558 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }