{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40eb3413-bf04-4fbb-b66e-a1c11ce5faf9", "symbol": "PGHH", "name": "Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Health Care Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.289, "architecture_energy": 66.232, "architecture_maturity": 93.002, "architecture_confidence": 89.455, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 21.71, "upward_expansion": 11.11, "deceleration": 52.31, "rotation_down": 66.7, "downward_expansion": 86.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 8677.7, 8810.872727, 9134.095238, 9452.722978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8497.0, "trend_reference": 10015.589844, "distance_from_trend": -0.151623, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13903.954815, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.388879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.932997, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285726, "excess_performance": -0.242017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151623, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109288, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.388879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.658708, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70844, "relative_activity": 1.101501, "balance": 0.658708, "dry_up": 1.666731, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044794, "annualized_volatility": 0.221365, "from_high_reference": -0.404697, "from_low_reference": 0.008546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10015.589844, "fair_value_reference": 13903.954815, "structural_low": 8425.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.006932, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.011908, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.072492, "worst_return": -0.155986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.010272, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.026932, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.109132, "worst_return": -0.149767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020752, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076427, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.134442, "worst_return": -0.291939, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 70.215989, "activity_lines": [ 8893.266667, 9011.272727, 9311.180952, 9667.591329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8594.0, "volume": 218733, "typical_volume": 68468.0, "trend": 10143.208398, "fair_value": 13942.60791, "relative_strength": -23.077919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.035177, "energy": 64.503748, "activity_lines": [ 8787.433333, 8910.881818, 9222.666667, 9558.929971 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8497.0, "volume": 70844, "typical_volume": 64315.85, "trend": 10015.589844, "fair_value": 13903.954815, "relative_strength": -23.932997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.289172, "energy": 66.231929, "activity_lines": [ 8677.7, 8810.872727, 9134.095238, 9452.722978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }