{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40eb5770-8838-4d2c-af13-579855a6109d", "symbol": "UROY", "name": "Uranium Royalty\u00a0Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.856, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.815, "architecture_energy": 16.26, "architecture_maturity": 85.299, "architecture_confidence": 68.084, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.2, "rotation_up": 42.1, "upward_expansion": 22.46, "deceleration": 41.19, "rotation_down": 17.74, "downward_expansion": 56.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.44, 3.180364, 3.248476, 3.371075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.15, "trend_reference": 3.597, "distance_from_trend": 0.153739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.863013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.449522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.993853, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050633, "excess_performance": -0.136821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05887, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.449522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050633, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094275, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17000151, "relative_activity": 1.341679, "balance": 1.094275, "dry_up": 1.343674, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122119, "annualized_volatility": 0.59911, "from_high_reference": -0.248188, "from_low_reference": 0.653386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.597, "fair_value_reference": 2.863013, "structural_low": 2.56, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.004329, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.012948, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.509091, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.135127, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.352601, "worst_return": -0.231844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023346, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.06663, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.890173, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 2.798, 2.918545, 3.199762, 3.391914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.96, "volume": 18154529, "typical_volume": 12220646.35, "trend": 3.608667, "fair_value": 2.842692, "relative_strength": -24.991932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.847587, "energy": 45.938461, "activity_lines": [ 2.845333, 2.897636, 3.161714, 3.348581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.4, "volume": 17862621, "typical_volume": 12466894.15, "trend": 3.592667, "fair_value": 2.850833, "relative_strength": -14.425253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.933025, "energy": 24.638702, "activity_lines": [ 3.038667, 2.971091, 3.168429, 3.335118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.15, "volume": 17000151, "typical_volume": 12670800.2, "trend": 3.597, "fair_value": 2.863013, "relative_strength": -0.993853, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.815156, "energy": 16.260157, "activity_lines": [ 3.44, 3.180364, 3.248476, 3.371075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }