{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40efb984-7657-4681-9afa-b4ad65a187ab", "symbol": "CCR", "name": "Credit Clear Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.607, "architecture_energy": 91.457, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.65, "rotation_up": 8.31, "upward_expansion": 21.86, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 85.97, "downward_expansion": 99.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.134091, 0.164369, 0.177737 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.11, "trend_reference": 0.195917, "distance_from_trend": -0.438537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.241875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.54522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.428406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.541667, "excess_performance": -0.605372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.438537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164831, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.54522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.493889, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.534284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.498974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.541667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.000155, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1419232, "relative_activity": 0.626661, "balance": 0.000155, "dry_up": 1.216075, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16958, "annualized_volatility": 0.628251, "from_high_reference": -0.633333, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.195917, "fair_value_reference": 0.241875, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.029471, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.152778, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028095, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019515, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.368421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.058635, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.138889, "worst_return": -0.460526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.211111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.565332, "energy": 95.685915, "activity_lines": [ 0.142667, 0.167455, 0.186333, 0.195742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.115, "volume": 2609879, "typical_volume": 2131572.75, "trend": 0.206333, "fair_value": 0.243093, "relative_strength": -49.838473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.237928, "energy": 94.383029, "activity_lines": [ 0.129333, 0.154727, 0.178774, 0.189495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.115, "volume": 4942847, "typical_volume": 2305540.2, "trend": 0.200917, "fair_value": 0.242516, "relative_strength": -50.373994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.532148, "energy": 91.971421, "activity_lines": [ 0.122333, 0.143909, 0.171619, 0.183602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.11, "volume": 1419232, "typical_volume": 2264753.4, "trend": 0.195917, "fair_value": 0.241875, "relative_strength": -53.428406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.607252, "energy": 91.45742, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.134091, 0.164369, 0.177737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }