{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40f3bfb6-25f8-48b3-924b-fe2fa3f83248", "symbol": "SHNY", "name": "BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS GOLD 3X LEVERAGED", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.454, "architecture_energy": 57.897, "architecture_maturity": 77.286, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.14, "rotation_up": 28.75, "upward_expansion": 10.72, "deceleration": 60.16, "rotation_down": 54.03, "downward_expansion": 86.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.526667, 8.538727, 9.784095, 11.235077 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.66, "trend_reference": 13.275867, "distance_from_trend": -0.272364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.999077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.380182, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.750792, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.460667, "excess_performance": -0.586292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.272364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.380182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.753254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351971, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.460667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450631, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5433179, "relative_activity": 1.529133, "balance": 0.450631, "dry_up": 1.016425, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142631, "annualized_volatility": 0.731593, "from_high_reference": -0.641904, "from_low_reference": 0.41663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.275867, "fair_value_reference": 6.999077, "structural_low": 7.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.02313, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000808, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.14455, "worst_return": -0.098291, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"relative_strength": -30.750792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.45402, "energy": 57.897002, "activity_lines": [ 8.526667, 8.538727, 9.784095, 11.235077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }