{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40f89803-fa0b-45e3-ae6a-e13e9b624288", "symbol": "GRNY", "name": "FUNDSTRAT GRANNY SHOTS US LARGE CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.093, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.881, "architecture_energy": 36.669, "architecture_maturity": 39.194, "architecture_confidence": 74.184, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.61, "rotation_up": 41.02, "upward_expansion": 71.23, "deceleration": 90.31, "rotation_down": 27.45, "downward_expansion": 9.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.399333, 27.369818, 27.156198, 26.645452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.84, "trend_reference": 26.074345, "distance_from_trend": 0.067716, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.333482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193135, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.612771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117623, "excess_performance": -0.008001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067716, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031136, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117623, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.238737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6119088, "relative_activity": 0.728982, "balance": 1.238737, "dry_up": 0.73092, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031221, "annualized_volatility": 0.1392, "from_high_reference": -0.011364, "from_low_reference": 0.225352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.074345, "fair_value_reference": 23.333482, "structural_low": 23.0701, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 20.48, "volume": 11447877, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 20.0, "volume": 15295860, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"close": 27.31, "volume": 7026071, "typical_volume": 9587813.1, "trend": 25.870012, "fair_value": 23.199218, "relative_strength": -0.809288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.162393, "energy": 44.96655, "activity_lines": [ 27.450007, 27.344533, 26.876013, 26.377626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.1, "volume": 5100962, "typical_volume": 9111454.45, "trend": 25.930679, "fair_value": 23.24256, "relative_strength": -0.951259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.772604, "energy": 42.298993, "activity_lines": [ 27.348012, 27.317443, 26.961773, 26.45698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.01, "volume": 6295299, "typical_volume": 8630313.95, "trend": 25.998012, "fair_value": 23.28396, "relative_strength": -2.288181, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.557414, "energy": 31.04217, "activity_lines": [ 27.240667, 27.267812, 27.026152, 26.526614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.84, "volume": 6119088, "typical_volume": 8394019.65, "trend": 26.074345, "fair_value": 23.333482, "relative_strength": -2.612771, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.880711, "energy": 36.669083, "activity_lines": [ 27.399333, 27.369818, 27.156198, 26.645452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }