{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40fb5f7b-26b8-4684-8f2e-84da176db694", "symbol": "FBIO", "name": "Fortress Biotech Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.343, "architecture_energy": 13.944, "architecture_maturity": 29.967, "architecture_confidence": 41.494, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.54, "rotation_up": 41.42, "upward_expansion": 47.73, "deceleration": 45.6, "rotation_down": 29.42, "downward_expansion": 10.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.060667, 3.060182, 2.891238, 2.876409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.67, "trend_reference": 2.946333, "distance_from_trend": -0.093789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.450026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089785, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.391774, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.183486, "excess_performance": -0.37094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.270085, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044268, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183486, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173393, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5224453, "relative_activity": 2.106159, "balance": 1.173393, "dry_up": 1.401199, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157171, "annualized_volatility": 0.494529, "from_high_reference": -0.410596, "from_low_reference": 0.459016 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.946333, "fair_value_reference": 2.450026, "structural_low": 2.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.06, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072465, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.037234, "worst_return": -0.093695, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.360778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.288537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.855, "worst_return": -0.133444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.042292, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.158534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.415, "worst_return": -0.330415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"relative_strength": 2.874327, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.50027, "energy": 51.54704, "activity_lines": [ 3.175333, 3.011273, 2.811905, 2.872237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.34, "volume": 2510474, "typical_volume": 2272118.4, "trend": 3.030667, "fair_value": 2.518135, "relative_strength": 3.332773, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.187898, "energy": 54.850246, "activity_lines": [ 3.258667, 3.094545, 2.866333, 2.891333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.13, "volume": 2249550, "typical_volume": 2287854.4, "trend": 3.000667, "fair_value": 2.483776, "relative_strength": -4.188611, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.23953, "energy": 47.165346, "activity_lines": [ 3.248667, 3.122727, 2.900762, 2.897742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.67, "volume": 5224453, "typical_volume": 2480559.7, "trend": 2.946333, "fair_value": 2.450026, "relative_strength": -22.391774, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.343297, "energy": 13.9438, "activity_lines": [ 3.060667, 3.060182, 2.891238, 2.876409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }