{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40fc68f2-9b5e-4b8d-8173-90e6a35b1b87", "symbol": "9931", "name": "Hsin Kao Gas Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.731, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.803, "architecture_energy": 13.33, "architecture_maturity": 16.26, "architecture_confidence": 42.265, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.36, "rotation_up": 37.18, "upward_expansion": 30.97, "deceleration": 32.36, "rotation_down": 17.31, "downward_expansion": 45.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.833335, 33.70443, 33.422406, 33.785771 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.900002, "trend_reference": 34.010428, "distance_from_trend": -0.003247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.716762, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036166, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.508007, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057173, "excess_performance": -0.384199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056725, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074107, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057173, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.35049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76050, "relative_activity": 0.159913, "balance": 2.35049, "dry_up": 0.300285, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022918, "annualized_volatility": 0.47779, "from_high_reference": -0.303461, "from_low_reference": 0.082801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.010428, "fair_value_reference": 32.716762, "structural_low": 31.876923, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.007548, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.002846, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.117898, "worst_return": -0.02381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025773, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027982, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.097059, "worst_return": -0.02642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020458, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015718, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.382222, "worst_return": -0.041501, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 1622116.05, "trend": 33.790043, "fair_value": 32.697455, "relative_strength": -25.518434, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.791802, "energy": 9.113321, "activity_lines": [ 33.528205, 33.281678, 33.465335, 33.791613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.150002, "volume": 203161, "typical_volume": 1419430.65, "trend": 33.853162, "fair_value": 32.703367, "relative_strength": -25.93895, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.931126, "energy": 12.374688, "activity_lines": [ 33.76436, 33.491492, 33.432686, 33.814836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.650002, "volume": 180002, "typical_volume": 1109818.25, "trend": 33.899615, "fair_value": 32.708394, "relative_strength": -25.290266, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.253285, "energy": 14.878889, "activity_lines": [ 33.786668, 33.571656, 33.400549, 33.801729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.700001, "volume": 112015, "typical_volume": 783179.1, "trend": 33.947735, "fair_value": 32.712968, "relative_strength": -26.196488, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.826114, "energy": 15.57305, "activity_lines": [ 33.783335, 33.632984, 33.393645, 33.78885 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.900002, "volume": 76050, "typical_volume": 475571.15, "trend": 34.010428, "fair_value": 32.716762, "relative_strength": -27.508007, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.80259, "energy": 13.329723, "activity_lines": [ 33.833335, 33.70443, 33.422406, 33.785771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }