{ "ticker": { "uuid": "40fd3853-44d6-4091-89cf-06b6a7f42259", "symbol": "RTNPOWER", "name": "RattanIndia Power Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.846, "architecture_energy": 46.305, "architecture_maturity": 6.103, "architecture_confidence": 74.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.74, "rotation_up": 15.61, "upward_expansion": 24.71, "deceleration": 49.98, "rotation_down": 64.62, "downward_expansion": 54.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.713333, 8.874727, 9.122048, 9.048387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.68, "trend_reference": 8.914333, "distance_from_trend": -0.026287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.087308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.217123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.274635, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025814, "excess_performance": 0.017895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.217123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154459, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066997, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025814, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.484215, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64483749, "relative_activity": 0.91194, "balance": 0.484215, "dry_up": 0.815474, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059819, "annualized_volatility": 0.299075, "from_high_reference": -0.327132, "from_low_reference": 0.154255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.914333, "fair_value_reference": 11.087308, "structural_low": 7.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.07073, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.081558, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.083782, "worst_return": -0.152174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.153727, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.186945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.835676, "worst_return": -0.262875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.061603, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.752432, "worst_return": -0.219512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.075676, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.05832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.746835, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150758, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.174867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.186326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.28742, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061915, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264888, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030756, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108885, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06487, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.75, "volume": 75702945, "typical_volume": 127582361.35, "trend": 3.835, "fair_value": 4.160577, "relative_strength": 11.262193, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"typical_volume": 72541758.8, "trend": 8.959667, "fair_value": 11.037436, "relative_strength": -9.091735, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.467516, "energy": 36.30846, "activity_lines": [ 8.826667, 9.042182, 9.200571, 9.077785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.75, "volume": 58130437, "typical_volume": 71140237.8, "trend": 8.926, "fair_value": 11.062115, "relative_strength": -9.445984, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.69158, "energy": 42.244872, "activity_lines": [ 8.769333, 8.961455, 9.166095, 9.064258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.68, "volume": 64483749, "typical_volume": 70710479.8, "trend": 8.914333, "fair_value": 11.087308, "relative_strength": -10.274635, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.846212, "energy": 46.304503, "activity_lines": [ 8.713333, 8.874727, 9.122048, 9.048387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }