{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4101d19f-6f29-40f7-b3dd-31d3fffaff95", "symbol": "ALHF", "name": "HF Company SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.279, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.634, "architecture_energy": 36.659, "architecture_maturity": 30.386, "architecture_confidence": 89.43, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.88, "rotation_up": 18.08, "upward_expansion": 9.98, "deceleration": 37.89, "rotation_down": 57.01, "downward_expansion": 78.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.189333, 4.230461, 4.238617, 4.245816 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.12, "trend_reference": 4.24665, "distance_from_trend": -0.029823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.784865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.767102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019048, "excess_performance": -0.072359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000161, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097671, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019048, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.772187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9324, "relative_activity": 0.750178, "balance": 0.772187, "dry_up": 0.62718, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044512, "annualized_volatility": 0.181471, "from_high_reference": -0.084444, "from_low_reference": 0.053352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.24665, "fair_value_reference": 3.784865, "structural_low": 3.911323, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.002378, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004402, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.085393, "worst_return": -0.049296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001069, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017365, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.101322, "worst_return": -0.068965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007616, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.406317, "worst_return": -0.101403, "sufficient": true }, 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4.252037, 4.257748, 4.253402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.32, "volume": 29135, "typical_volume": 12432.5, "trend": 4.245983, "fair_value": 3.763688, "relative_strength": -1.771449, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.739389, "energy": 24.294611, "activity_lines": [ 4.293652, 4.269865, 4.263274, 4.258328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.3, "volume": 13198, "typical_volume": 12745.85, "trend": 4.249316, "fair_value": 3.769084, "relative_strength": -2.194174, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.712181, "energy": 18.935011, "activity_lines": [ 4.29366, 4.280522, 4.266562, 4.261813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.2, "volume": 3351, "typical_volume": 12375.0, "trend": 4.249983, "fair_value": 3.774585, "relative_strength": -4.708792, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.801706, "energy": 11.03529, "activity_lines": [ 4.257045, 4.270152, 4.260088, 4.258631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.18, "volume": 5308, "typical_volume": 12234.35, "trend": 4.24865, "fair_value": 3.779461, "relative_strength": -6.483671, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.884761, "energy": 7.40215, "activity_lines": [ 4.226667, 4.256417, 4.252043, 4.254116 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.12, "volume": 9324, "typical_volume": 12429.05, "trend": 4.24665, "fair_value": 3.784865, "relative_strength": -9.767102, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.634051, "energy": 36.659253, "activity_lines": [ 4.189333, 4.230461, 4.238617, 4.245816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }