{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "41035bfb-07c7-42a6-9c28-113976d849fc",
    "symbol": "XDWY",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Screened UCITS ETF 1D",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 93.004,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 87.733,
    "architecture_energy": 70.839,
    "architecture_maturity": 79.398,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.056,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.55,
        "rotation_up": 59.12,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 68.16,
        "rotation_down": 28.71,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        27.695334,
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        27.152156,
        26.577672
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 28.25,
    "trend_reference": 25.918833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.089941,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 22.025497,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282604,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.352216,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.142764,
    "excess_performance": -0.028128,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089941,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040004,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.282604,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040809,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033522,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002593,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.142764,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.522198,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3125,
      "relative_activity": 0.185076,
      "balance": 2.522198,
      "dry_up": 1.164839,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01611,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.112235,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000707,
      "from_low_reference": 0.236378
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 25.918833,
      "fair_value_reference": 22.025497,
      "structural_low": 23.400765,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 27,
        "median_return": 0.011118,
        "positive_rate": 0.814815,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.814815,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000534,
        "regime_survival": 0.814815,
        "best_return": 0.057906,
        "worst_return": -0.103136,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.052991,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011463,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.088128,
        "worst_return": -0.053664,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.08492,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.032211,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
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        "worst_return": -0.040719,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.158361,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023616,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.26073,
        "worst_return": 0.055991,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-12-08",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": -3.239428,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 26.959999,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -3.267582,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.241639,
        "energy": 76.083032,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 724,
        "typical_volume": 12473.05,
        "trend": 25.420345,
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        "relative_strength": -4.589314,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 78.399638,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 14606.15,
        "trend": 25.527279,
        "fair_value": 21.75333,
        "relative_strength": -3.680309,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 27.690001,
        "volume": 7312,
        "typical_volume": 14838.7,
        "trend": 25.633715,
        "fair_value": 21.822454,
        "relative_strength": -2.236575,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.927697,
        "energy": 85.918951,
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          27.575001,
          27.387297,
          26.735337,
          26.209564
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.43,
        "volume": 3182,
        "typical_volume": 14302.6,
        "trend": 25.727671,
        "fair_value": 21.889912,
        "relative_strength": -2.908362,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.302958,
        "energy": 73.073649,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.551334,
          27.424091,
          26.86814,
          26.325454
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.205,
        "volume": 65054,
        "typical_volume": 17427.95,
        "trend": 25.817941,
        "fair_value": 21.953815,
        "relative_strength": -4.252098,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.31545,
        "energy": 62.152313,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.450667,
          27.404818,
          26.966999,
          26.420765
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 28.25,
        "volume": 3125,
        "typical_volume": 16884.95,
        "trend": 25.918833,
        "fair_value": 22.025497,
        "relative_strength": -3.352216,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.732849,
        "energy": 70.839044,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.695334,
          27.571546,
          27.152156,
          26.577672
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}