{ "ticker": { "uuid": "410360fc-336e-4349-9151-5d6bb1864d57", "symbol": "AYM", "name": "Australia United Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.95, "architecture_energy": 49.288, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.192, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.81, "rotation_up": 27.84, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 46.76, "rotation_down": 34.62, "downward_expansion": 64.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.001964, 0.002186, 0.002602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.002, "trend_reference": 0.003133, "distance_from_trend": -0.361702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.002894, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.30897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.066671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.361702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.30897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314341, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430667, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.220922, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68646, "relative_activity": 0.067639, "balance": 1.220922, "dry_up": 1.348525, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153846, "annualized_volatility": 1.725311, "from_high_reference": -0.846154, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003133, "fair_value_reference": 0.002894, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.212121, "median_excess_return": 0.00011, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.07791, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.053757, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.365319, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.333333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.003, "volume": 733333, "typical_volume": 188642.9, "trend": 0.003233, "fair_value": 0.006506, "relative_strength": -16.976775, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.734631, "energy": 13.443724, "activity_lines": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.845174, "energy": 87.754916, "activity_lines": [ 0.0018, 0.002127, 0.002743, 0.003116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.002, "volume": 24534, "typical_volume": 972557.55, "trend": 0.0034, "fair_value": 0.002939, "relative_strength": -40.626648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.598696, "energy": 74.806308, "activity_lines": [ 0.001867, 0.002055, 0.002619, 0.003022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 963906.1, "trend": 0.003333, "fair_value": 0.002933, "relative_strength": -40.349729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.015834, "energy": 61.357966, "activity_lines": [ 0.001933, 0.002, 0.00251, 0.002931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.002, "volume": 583021, "typical_volume": 885916.1, "trend": 0.0033, "fair_value": 0.00292, "relative_strength": -40.283574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.85446, "energy": 55.767495, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.001964, 0.00241, 0.002845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.002, "volume": 1017, "typical_volume": 779989.0, "trend": 0.003267, "fair_value": 0.002907, "relative_strength": -40.109083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.546558, "energy": 53.128311, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.001945, 0.002324, 0.002761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 4821756, "typical_volume": 1012735.75, "trend": 0.0032, "fair_value": 0.002901, "relative_strength": -41.449506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.859408, "energy": 51.858228, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.001945, 0.002248, 0.00268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.002, "volume": 68646, "typical_volume": 1014894.25, "trend": 0.003133, "fair_value": 0.002894, "relative_strength": -43.066671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.949786, "energy": 49.287879, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.001964, 0.002186, 0.002602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }