{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41098d8c-b389-4eee-b946-970a9f5ed720", "symbol": "600399", "name": "Fushun Special Steel Co.,LTD.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.091, "architecture_energy": 60.794, "architecture_maturity": 76.221, "architecture_confidence": 95.314, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 28.13, "upward_expansion": 11.45, "deceleration": 60.58, "rotation_down": 53.35, "downward_expansion": 84.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.114667, 4.152364, 4.511667, 4.94286 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.31, "trend_reference": 5.512667, "distance_from_trend": -0.218164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.231011, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.308298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.851273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.340979, "excess_performance": -0.297775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.308298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.340979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618758, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183099837, "relative_activity": 1.098185, "balance": 0.618758, "dry_up": 1.166083, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091558, "annualized_volatility": 0.513157, "from_high_reference": -0.478208, "from_low_reference": 0.152406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.512667, "fair_value_reference": 6.231011, "structural_low": 3.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.021247, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.017967, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.288557, "worst_return": -0.201853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050353, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.298729, "worst_return": -0.232759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028734, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.178127, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.092135, "worst_return": -0.409814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 173221250.35, "trend": 5.563667, "fair_value": 6.267094, "relative_strength": -21.227401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.825078, "energy": 65.067531, "activity_lines": [ 4.028, 4.146727, 4.57519, 5.023742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.31, "volume": 183099837, "typical_volume": 166729500.8, "trend": 5.512667, "fair_value": 6.231011, "relative_strength": -20.851273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.09124, "energy": 60.793556, "activity_lines": [ 4.114667, 4.152364, 4.511667, 4.94286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }