{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4112c674-5602-4da1-8625-d423d7ce284c", "symbol": "000725", "name": "BOE Technology Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.058, "architecture_energy": 28.282, "architecture_maturity": 73.062, "architecture_confidence": 89.991, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.4, "rotation_up": 25.2, "upward_expansion": 58.18, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 35.46, "downward_expansion": 19.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.966, 6.450425, 5.973414, 5.533536 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.07, "trend_reference": 5.055091, "distance_from_trend": 0.20077, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.215862, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.4398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.471287, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.389016, "excess_performance": 0.381616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.20077, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198809, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.4398, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.414339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.274713, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.454962, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.389016, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9517161780, "relative_activity": 1.338327, "balance": 0.550426, "dry_up": 1.583061, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182689, "annualized_volatility": 0.736657, "from_high_reference": -0.332233, "from_low_reference": 0.601583 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.055091, "fair_value_reference": 4.215862, "structural_low": 3.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002545, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.017022, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.080952, "worst_return": -0.100686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035383, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.053727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.459116, "worst_return": -0.070559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005583, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048662, "worst_return": -0.107798, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009756, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044888, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004484, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", 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"up", "direction": 66.662728, "energy": 62.358845, "activity_lines": [ 7.198667, 6.773533, 5.817596, 5.369317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.79, "volume": 11491091101, "typical_volume": 6479171774.25, "trend": 4.944091, "fair_value": 4.195547, "relative_strength": 27.031453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.71141, "energy": 47.397848, "activity_lines": [ 6.703333, 6.688631, 5.875869, 5.427548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.51, "volume": 9333477635, "typical_volume": 6781887657.85, "trend": 4.993091, "fair_value": 4.203407, "relative_strength": 22.356085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.498128, "energy": 25.064737, "activity_lines": [ 6.165333, 6.522192, 5.900713, 5.464058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.07, "volume": 9517161780, "typical_volume": 7111236610.45, "trend": 5.055091, "fair_value": 4.215862, "relative_strength": 27.471287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.058146, "energy": 28.282312, "activity_lines": [ 5.966, 6.450425, 5.973414, 5.533536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }