{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4113ab6a-2e49-4933-ad4d-8b8fbbf33516", "symbol": "PM", "name": "Premier Marketing Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.544, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.677, "architecture_energy": 17.429, "architecture_maturity": 13.205, "architecture_confidence": 58.464, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.01, "rotation_up": 42.73, "upward_expansion": 35.29, "deceleration": 39.46, "rotation_down": 15.18, "downward_expansion": 41.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.2, 11.076364, 11.010952, 11.096428 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.4, "trend_reference": 11.246568, "distance_from_trend": 0.013643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.806427, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.82143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023431, "excess_performance": -0.215756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013643, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006815, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294509, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023431, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.266719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1006400, "relative_activity": 0.888497, "balance": 0.266719, "dry_up": 0.759292, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032389, "annualized_volatility": 0.143887, "from_high_reference": -0.069568, "from_low_reference": 0.085714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.246568, "fair_value_reference": 8.806427, "structural_low": 10.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00463, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.013046, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067039, "worst_return": -0.045646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001665, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043716, "worst_return": -0.036036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011682, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.029765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008724, "worst_return": -0.014641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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11.038437, 11.183145 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.7, "volume": 239100, "typical_volume": 1375760.0, "trend": 11.293388, "fair_value": 8.639654, "relative_strength": -16.47942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.300417, "energy": 61.902557, "activity_lines": [ 10.66, 10.770909, 10.986202, 11.144221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.0, "volume": 444600, "typical_volume": 1335650.0, "trend": 11.280585, "fair_value": 8.666613, "relative_strength": -17.410175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.238674, "energy": 36.004338, "activity_lines": [ 10.78, 10.789091, 10.967174, 11.125292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.2, "volume": 1381500, "typical_volume": 1257060.0, "trend": 11.28088, "fair_value": 8.695105, "relative_strength": -16.081166, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.753584, "energy": 17.771539, "activity_lines": [ 10.94, 10.845455, 10.972698, 11.120093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 1473900, "typical_volume": 1263950.0, "trend": 11.274743, "fair_value": 8.723095, "relative_strength": -16.664223, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.621513, "energy": 19.472497, "activity_lines": [ 11.06, 10.905455, 10.980476, 11.114875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.0, "volume": 755500, "typical_volume": 1160010.0, "trend": 11.26194, "fair_value": 8.750555, "relative_strength": -18.048363, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.071075, "energy": 21.397485, "activity_lines": [ 11.073333, 10.932727, 10.972381, 11.09715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.1, "volume": 204400, "typical_volume": 1137020.0, "trend": 11.249254, "fair_value": 8.778155, "relative_strength": -16.02263, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.176798, "energy": 16.511698, "activity_lines": [ 11.1, 10.98, 10.976667, 11.086702 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.4, "volume": 1006400, "typical_volume": 1132700.0, "trend": 11.246568, "fair_value": 8.806427, "relative_strength": -12.82143, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.677019, "energy": 17.429207, "activity_lines": [ 11.2, 11.076364, 11.010952, 11.096428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }