{ "ticker": { "uuid": "411560aa-10f0-4962-bd83-f233d6d36811", "symbol": "600000", "name": "Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.296, "architecture_energy": 24.637, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.123, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.37, "rotation_up": 38.48, "upward_expansion": 20.87, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 20.84, "downward_expansion": 54.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.173419, 8.960074, 9.035293, 9.242449 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.21, "trend_reference": 9.585591, "distance_from_trend": -0.039183, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.348322, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.533337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082669, "excess_performance": -0.039465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086797, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152335, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082669, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.504688, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 376652578, "relative_activity": 1.213109, "balance": 1.504688, "dry_up": 1.42232, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047282, "annualized_volatility": 0.200348, "from_high_reference": -0.355493, "from_low_reference": 0.122831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.585591, "fair_value_reference": 9.348322, "structural_low": 8.202482, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.006645, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006397, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.104796, "worst_return": -0.192926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.049117, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.044332, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.172414, "worst_return": -0.100023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.095835, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.025454, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.186046, "worst_return": -0.17995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.946592, "fair_value": 9.281986, "relative_strength": -23.712467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.090765, "energy": 83.91406, "activity_lines": [ 8.542421, 8.773546, 9.100012, 9.412258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.87, "volume": 417123026, "typical_volume": 311571077.1, "trend": 9.855258, "fair_value": 9.297274, "relative_strength": -16.133482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.905854, "energy": 70.076615, "activity_lines": [ 8.617238, 8.767405, 9.050499, 9.3428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.04, "volume": 403906642, "typical_volume": 304738015.25, "trend": 9.766925, "fair_value": 9.313766, "relative_strength": -14.809034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.296499, "energy": 48.206972, "activity_lines": [ 8.772972, 8.79581, 9.021224, 9.290203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.51, "volume": 568756132, "typical_volume": 309588997.15, "trend": 9.693258, "fair_value": 9.332008, "relative_strength": -10.08418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.368802, "energy": 18.671941, "activity_lines": [ 9.061368, 8.910215, 9.040758, 9.273627 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.21, "volume": 376652578, "typical_volume": 310485466.9, "trend": 9.585591, "fair_value": 9.348322, "relative_strength": -14.533337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.295727, "energy": 24.637225, "activity_lines": [ 9.173419, 8.960074, 9.035293, 9.242449 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }