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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.241, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.825, "architecture_energy": 65.242, "architecture_maturity": 86.711, "architecture_confidence": 64.065, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.37, "rotation_up": 52.88, "upward_expansion": 82.33, "deceleration": 71.31, "rotation_down": 28.9, "downward_expansion": 11.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 124.757333, 124.267273, 122.507087, 119.773644 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 127.279999, "trend_reference": 116.547317, "distance_from_trend": 0.092089, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.149706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.309052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153604, "excess_performance": -0.017287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092089, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034166, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153604, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.285186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75285, "relative_activity": 1.624501, "balance": 2.285186, "dry_up": 1.40857, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018858, "annualized_volatility": 0.117679, "from_high_reference": -0.004458, "from_low_reference": 0.24257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.547317, "fair_value_reference": 99.149706, "structural_low": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 123.809998, "volume": 39551, "typical_volume": 47659.9, "trend": 115.214315, "fair_value": 98.206766, "relative_strength": -2.934635, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.44663, "energy": 69.351516, "activity_lines": [ 124.111999, 123.537518, 120.620834, 118.040423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.019997, "volume": 72023, "typical_volume": 46176.45, "trend": 115.659928, "fair_value": 98.511536, "relative_strength": -2.530521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.19008, "energy": 64.039775, "activity_lines": [ 124.141332, 123.711527, 121.25336, 118.608531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 122.510002, "volume": 74253, "typical_volume": 45714.15, "trend": 116.070834, "fair_value": 98.813343, "relative_strength": -4.255777, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.508474, "energy": 57.441772, "activity_lines": [ 123.653333, 123.555582, 121.68255, 119.050472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.279999, "volume": 75285, "typical_volume": 46343.45, "trend": 116.547317, "fair_value": 99.149706, "relative_strength": -3.309052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.825406, "energy": 65.242067, "activity_lines": [ 124.757333, 124.267273, 122.507087, 119.773644 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }