{ "ticker": { "uuid": "411b8ccd-d1b5-44ac-abda-4a6e32d959f0", "symbol": "83161", "name": "Chinaamc Global Etf Series - Chinaamc Rmb Money Market Etf", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.705, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 98.784, "architecture_energy": 96.639, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.937, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.81, "rotation_up": 79.47, "upward_expansion": 98.54, "deceleration": 39.88, "rotation_down": 20.22, "downward_expansion": 20.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1063.696655, 1063.260904, 1062.405475, 1061.537414 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1064.449951, "trend_reference": 1060.254993, "distance_from_trend": 0.003957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 329.920191, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.226386, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 35.311705, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006953, "excess_performance": 0.040534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003957, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101356, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.226386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.887898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.353117, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.562174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006953, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2891, "relative_activity": 5.840994, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.527932, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000304, "annualized_volatility": 0.001595, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 9.137619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1060.254993, "fair_value_reference": 329.920191, "structural_low": 1057.099976, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.001182, "positive_rate": 0.95, "directional_follow_through": 0.95, "median_excess_return": -0.017069, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 9.009487, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003355, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007613, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 9.041826, "worst_return": 0.003066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009629, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09147, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 9.075346, "worst_return": 0.006437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"trend": 1059.973328, "fair_value": 323.73846, "relative_strength": 37.275479, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.838215, "energy": 76.045355, "activity_lines": [ 1063.260002, 1062.921824, 1062.107384, 1061.2486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1064.449951, "volume": 2891, "typical_volume": 494.95, "trend": 1060.254993, "fair_value": 329.920191, "relative_strength": 35.311705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 98.784068, "energy": 96.638839, "activity_lines": [ 1063.696655, 1063.260904, 1062.405475, 1061.537414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }