{ "ticker": { "uuid": "412bc9da-8236-4645-9120-6a65c8be2ea0", "symbol": "601528", "name": "Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.305, "architecture_energy": 23.97, "architecture_maturity": 90.622, "architecture_confidence": 73.749, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.5, "rotation_up": 43.2, "upward_expansion": 22.26, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 22.37, "downward_expansion": 56.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.877333, 4.773636, 4.792798, 4.876247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 4.991193, "distance_from_trend": -0.020274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.925347, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.080913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.065293, "excess_performance": -0.022089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038728, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007176, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100325, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665571, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119422399, "relative_activity": 1.70009, "balance": 0.665571, "dry_up": 1.679772, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044518, "annualized_volatility": 0.189569, "from_high_reference": -0.135118, "from_low_reference": 0.091518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.991193, "fair_value_reference": 4.925347, "structural_low": 4.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.062943, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.037675, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195604, "worst_return": -0.055901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062262, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.039698, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.152074, "worst_return": -0.045559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061843, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.03309, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.149451, "worst_return": -0.034768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.023644, "fair_value": 4.920726, "relative_strength": -4.456382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.820551, "energy": 38.428571, "activity_lines": [ 4.682, 4.673818, 4.77455, 4.881035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.07, "volume": 126115916, "typical_volume": 68914868.85, "trend": 5.010579, "fair_value": 4.923642, "relative_strength": 1.827479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.23574, "energy": 17.415568, "activity_lines": [ 4.828667, 4.742545, 4.791518, 4.884026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 119422399, "typical_volume": 70244738.55, "trend": 4.991193, "fair_value": 4.925347, "relative_strength": -4.080913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.304839, "energy": 23.970055, "activity_lines": [ 4.877333, 4.773636, 4.792798, 4.876247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }