{ "ticker": { "uuid": "412db2ae-8967-467a-be81-62e46710a4ad", "symbol": "688560", "name": "Crown Advanced Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.524, "architecture_energy": 78.046, "architecture_maturity": 37.697, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 21.27, "upward_expansion": 18.71, "deceleration": 39.65, "rotation_down": 62.48, "downward_expansion": 92.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.194, 11.523091, 12.957238, 14.01772 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.86, "trend_reference": 15.519667, "distance_from_trend": -0.235808, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.717692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.351964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.397358, "excess_performance": -0.354154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.235808, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194167, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21352, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.397358, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.382263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21647787, "relative_activity": 0.912178, "balance": 0.382263, "dry_up": 0.882068, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099494, "annualized_volatility": 0.544132, "from_high_reference": -0.504388, "from_low_reference": 0.204061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.519667, "fair_value_reference": 14.717692, "structural_low": 9.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.049279, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.73913, "median_excess_return": -0.034649, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.337209, "worst_return": -0.227339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.170422, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.137698, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.355024, "worst_return": -0.293484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.233309, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.131204, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.362679, "worst_return": -0.411446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01937, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132723, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088011, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.3, "volume": 18070021, "typical_volume": 25372751.9, "trend": 15.932333, "fair_value": 15.096982, "relative_strength": -28.029297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.217362, "energy": 87.341976, "activity_lines": [ 12.042667, 13.064909, 14.346476, 15.241742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.57, "volume": 19451454, "typical_volume": 24824632.05, "trend": 15.814667, "fair_value": 14.987934, "relative_strength": -28.02822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.49088, "energy": 92.621241, "activity_lines": [ 11.432667, 12.426182, 13.900095, 14.895785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.43, "volume": 22369390, "typical_volume": 24160101.9, "trend": 15.704667, "fair_value": 14.887469, "relative_strength": -29.414714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.953363, "energy": 91.02767, "activity_lines": [ 10.948667, 11.886, 13.485048, 14.548387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.22, "volume": 20264329, "typical_volume": 24014671.2, "trend": 15.600667, "fair_value": 14.794231, "relative_strength": -23.953735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.695668, "energy": 85.72961, "activity_lines": [ 10.944667, 11.600182, 13.177286, 14.259054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.86, "volume": 21647787, "typical_volume": 23731989.45, "trend": 15.519667, "fair_value": 14.717692, "relative_strength": -21.351964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.523985, "energy": 78.046005, "activity_lines": [ 11.194, 11.523091, 12.957238, 14.01772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }