{ "ticker": { "uuid": "413367d8-ff7f-424e-9694-157f336321b0", "symbol": "METL", "name": "iShares Essential Metals Producers UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.131, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.192, "architecture_energy": 29.069, "architecture_maturity": 17.786, "architecture_confidence": 59.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.83, "rotation_up": 20.64, "upward_expansion": 12.49, "deceleration": 60.13, "rotation_down": 46.37, "downward_expansion": 69.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.643933, 9.635782, 10.020114, 10.162652 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.456, "trend_reference": 10.3538, "distance_from_trend": 0.009871, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.980096, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.497974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.155485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009473, "excess_performance": -0.092357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009871, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045824, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.497974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186542, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031555, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.317614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722317, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 353438, "relative_activity": 1.435099, "balance": 0.722317, "dry_up": 0.769375, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06616, "annualized_volatility": 0.458353, "from_high_reference": -0.136724, "from_low_reference": 0.767112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.3538, "fair_value_reference": 6.980096, "structural_low": 8.559, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06253, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004828, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011673, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05321, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118887, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 5.864, "volume": 14409, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 5.63, "volume": 41933, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 5.362, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.345, "volume": 109376, "typical_volume": 260339.5, "trend": 10.3297, "fair_value": 6.928186, "relative_strength": -5.340893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.929108, "energy": 76.233115, "activity_lines": [ 9.2324, 9.640982, 10.068805, 10.216738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.37, "volume": 158849, "typical_volume": 245183.25, "trend": 10.334633, "fair_value": 6.949605, "relative_strength": -5.707557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.736201, "energy": 70.879441, "activity_lines": [ 9.252533, 9.527964, 9.991376, 10.154822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.456, "volume": 353438, "typical_volume": 246281.2, "trend": 10.3538, "fair_value": 6.980096, "relative_strength": 3.155485, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.192328, "energy": 29.069312, "activity_lines": [ 9.643933, 9.635782, 10.020114, 10.162652 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }