{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41351790-ce37-4e57-a39a-0b32c2a410f7", "symbol": "XSPD", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 Inverse Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.981, "architecture_energy": 52.802, "architecture_maturity": 67.382, "architecture_confidence": 87.868, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.74, "rotation_up": 28.49, "upward_expansion": 7.66, "deceleration": 59.44, "rotation_down": 48.3, "downward_expansion": 78.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.618067, 5.635236, 5.667302, 5.768419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.477, "trend_reference": 5.876083, "distance_from_trend": -0.067917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.748549, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.600423, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090577, "excess_performance": -0.141812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02206, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188418, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090577, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.661868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163674, "relative_activity": 0.387609, "balance": 0.661868, "dry_up": 0.433493, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01956, "annualized_volatility": 0.129932, "from_high_reference": -0.163434, "from_low_reference": 0.003114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.876083, "fair_value_reference": 6.748549, "structural_low": 5.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.009549, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.012407, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.093834, "worst_return": -0.061512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.019396, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.042633, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.133916, "worst_return": -0.075214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.063527, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.116517, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.156819, "worst_return": -0.082518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 45.27418, "activity_lines": [ 5.6593, 5.6459, 5.777383, 5.859314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.5995, "volume": 503417, "typical_volume": 458310.75, "trend": 5.92285, "fair_value": 6.803735, "relative_strength": -12.389769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.562898, "energy": 50.196343, "activity_lines": [ 5.6414, 5.635955, 5.748121, 5.837537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.6675, "volume": 241313, "typical_volume": 461445.2, "trend": 5.91095, "fair_value": 6.790475, "relative_strength": -11.708096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.729676, "energy": 46.637659, "activity_lines": [ 5.6478, 5.641645, 5.727455, 5.821062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.6945, "volume": 179545, "typical_volume": 440294.55, "trend": 5.901967, "fair_value": 6.777703, "relative_strength": -11.966297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.956177, "energy": 43.595553, "activity_lines": [ 5.662367, 5.652455, 5.711226, 5.807098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.717, "volume": 147666, "typical_volume": 429581.3, "trend": 5.89155, "fair_value": 6.764334, "relative_strength": -12.17515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.261717, "energy": 35.524252, "activity_lines": [ 5.679933, 5.666636, 5.699386, 5.795165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.477, "volume": 163674, "typical_volume": 422266.05, "trend": 5.876083, "fair_value": 6.748549, "relative_strength": -15.600423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.981027, "energy": 52.802294, "activity_lines": [ 5.618067, 5.635236, 5.667302, 5.768419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }