{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4139480f-aa2e-42c1-b474-9129942ff52f", "symbol": "ETFUSA", "name": "Amundi Core MSCI USA UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.238, "architecture_energy": 67.614, "architecture_maturity": 89.044, "architecture_confidence": 65.548, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.87, "rotation_up": 53.6, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.39, "rotation_down": 29.12, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.247334, 50.05291, 49.317834, 48.183866 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 51.290001, "trend_reference": 46.847666, "distance_from_trend": 0.094825, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.750015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228503, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.118449, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159149, "excess_performance": -0.011743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094825, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04103, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228503, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060068, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004669, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.183008, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51033, "relative_activity": 2.720744, "balance": 3.183008, "dry_up": 1.586568, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018065, "annualized_volatility": 0.119138, "from_high_reference": -0.003303, "from_low_reference": 0.244414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.847666, "fair_value_reference": 41.750015, "structural_low": 42.235001, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.93, "volume": 18170, "typical_volume": 18313.75, "trend": 46.306158, "fair_value": 41.54465, "relative_strength": -2.675746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.869883, "energy": 71.194876, "activity_lines": [ 50.012667, 49.761273, 48.541453, 47.470115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.950001, "volume": 26168, "typical_volume": 17704.1, "trend": 46.487474, "fair_value": 41.612435, "relative_strength": -2.395455, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.669743, "energy": 65.064009, "activity_lines": [ 50.022334, 49.835001, 48.804048, 47.705201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.27, "volume": 23666, "typical_volume": 17671.3, "trend": 46.653223, "fair_value": 41.673695, "relative_strength": -4.257732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.146682, "energy": 59.910878, "activity_lines": [ 49.797334, 49.761091, 48.976929, 47.884719 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.290001, "volume": 51033, "typical_volume": 18757.0, "trend": 46.847666, "fair_value": 41.750015, "relative_strength": -3.118449, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.238308, "energy": 67.613837, "activity_lines": [ 50.247334, 50.05291, 49.317834, 48.183866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }