{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41410c64-df20-4a1c-ba75-4eafe28f2267", "symbol": "QDEV", "name": "State Street SPDR ETFs Europe I plc - SPDR S&P Developed Quality Aristocrats UCITSETFUSDUnh(Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.621, "architecture_energy": 82.463, "architecture_maturity": 26.261, "architecture_confidence": 85.786, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.84, "rotation_up": 69.08, "upward_expansion": 89.68, "deceleration": 50.24, "rotation_down": 20.95, "downward_expansion": 16.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.819, 12.695055, 12.485952, 12.242843 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.195, "trend_reference": 12.0161, "distance_from_trend": 0.09811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.192437, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.866378, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126526, "excess_performance": 0.075291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028664, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032504, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.337266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3682, "relative_activity": 2.69793, "balance": 15.337266, "dry_up": 0.857117, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01767, "annualized_volatility": 0.146694, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.23827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.0161, "fair_value_reference": 11.192437, "structural_low": 10.656, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.020545, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002334, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.020545, "worst_return": 0.020545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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12.6104, 12.529491, 12.259643, 12.077761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.632, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1806.65, "trend": 11.9535, "fair_value": 11.1524, "relative_strength": -0.074292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.643692, "energy": 83.136335, "activity_lines": [ 12.638467, 12.559655, 12.324424, 12.123129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.593, "volume": 685, "typical_volume": 1840.9, "trend": 11.978933, "fair_value": 11.169151, "relative_strength": -1.544965, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.633627, "energy": 75.51839, "activity_lines": [ 12.638867, 12.574545, 12.379867, 12.164387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.195, "volume": 3682, "typical_volume": 1364.75, "trend": 12.0161, "fair_value": 11.192437, "relative_strength": 2.866378, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.621455, "energy": 82.462782, "activity_lines": [ 12.819, 12.695055, 12.485952, 12.242843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }