{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41472237-d128-474f-8b53-069cbda398bc", "symbol": "ATSX", "name": "Accelerate Canadian Long Short Equity Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.831, "architecture_energy": 82.636, "architecture_maturity": 38.053, "architecture_confidence": 78.055, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.95, "rotation_up": 80.12, "upward_expansion": 95.93, "deceleration": 40.95, "rotation_down": 12.89, "downward_expansion": 17.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.898668, 44.420728, 43.86681, 43.178581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 45.400002, "trend_reference": 42.206334, "distance_from_trend": 0.075668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.744396, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.526338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.159944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167095, "excess_performance": 0.046674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058687, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.526338, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031599, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167095, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.894737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.210526, "balance": 1.894737, "dry_up": 1.157895, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019553, "annualized_volatility": 0.164222, "from_high_reference": -0.003293, "from_low_reference": 0.448628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.206334, "fair_value_reference": 29.744396, "structural_low": 39.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.01626, "positive_rate": 0.787234, "directional_follow_through": 0.787234, "median_excess_return": 0.003449, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 0.124509, "worst_return": -0.078555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.048546, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027063, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.178855, "worst_return": -0.095543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.090977, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.038193, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.240079, "worst_return": -0.065999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.113009, "energy": 61.104125, "activity_lines": [ 43.655334, 43.285273, 42.410381, 41.634925 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 43.860001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2455.0, "trend": 40.73, "fair_value": 28.712782, "relative_strength": 5.089578, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.906937, "energy": 60.041196, "activity_lines": [ 43.74, 43.447637, 42.622905, 41.855312 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 42.950001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2430.0, "trend": 40.917334, "fair_value": 28.854068, "relative_strength": 2.727462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.03353, "energy": 52.757982, "activity_lines": [ 43.498667, 43.420182, 42.721572, 41.998538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 43.630001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1015.0, "trend": 41.129, "fair_value": 29.00026, "relative_strength": 3.390056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.098081, "energy": 49.948464, "activity_lines": [ 43.537334, 43.497092, 42.865715, 42.173549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 43.720001, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1045.0, "trend": 41.316334, "fair_value": 29.144176, "relative_strength": 3.267148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.944977, "energy": 46.212583, "activity_lines": [ 43.552667, 43.562001, 43.000762, 42.34071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.48, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 1085.0, "trend": 41.538, "fair_value": 29.291751, "relative_strength": 4.942713, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.100303, "energy": 56.749007, "activity_lines": [ 43.862001, 43.744728, 43.198048, 42.544818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.080002, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 1090.0, "trend": 41.761334, "fair_value": 29.441109, "relative_strength": 5.78444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.610174, "energy": 78.087206, "activity_lines": [ 44.312668, 44.001637, 43.444953, 42.773334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.639999, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 1035.0, "trend": 41.997334, "fair_value": 29.590984, "relative_strength": 4.952662, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.557335, "energy": 71.792442, "activity_lines": [ 44.535334, 44.150182, 43.630048, 42.959054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.400002, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 950.0, "trend": 42.206334, "fair_value": 29.744396, "relative_strength": 3.159944, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.831223, "energy": 82.636328, "activity_lines": [ 44.898668, 44.420728, 43.86681, 43.178581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }