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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.396, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.08, "architecture_energy": 63.676, "architecture_maturity": 37.684, "architecture_confidence": 82.84, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 60.89, "upward_expansion": 83.93, "deceleration": 53.36, "rotation_down": 22.69, "downward_expansion": 10.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 144.079333, 142.914173, 141.331654, 138.771418 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 147.87, "trend_reference": 136.019612, "distance_from_trend": 0.087123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.730326, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.031023, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112714, "excess_performance": -0.012911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027033, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018568, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016805, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.559311, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2261610, "relative_activity": 1.486923, "balance": 1.559311, "dry_up": 1.429107, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023234, "annualized_volatility": 0.135826, "from_high_reference": -0.002429, "from_low_reference": 0.220855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 136.019612, "fair_value_reference": 113.730326, 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112.611571, "relative_strength": -1.425599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.135374, "energy": 48.780342, "activity_lines": [ 141.978021, 141.570276, 139.279767, 137.092416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 141.09, "volume": 3136701, "typical_volume": 1564860.35, "trend": 135.208981, "fair_value": 112.958468, "relative_strength": -1.295899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.733291, "energy": 48.676924, "activity_lines": [ 141.792667, 141.530659, 139.757474, 137.487773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.8, "volume": 949020, "typical_volume": 1538421.45, "trend": 135.564536, "fair_value": 113.327867, "relative_strength": -1.124185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.703811, "energy": 48.624707, "activity_lines": [ 142.207333, 141.775861, 140.341379, 137.977517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 147.87, "volume": 2261610, "typical_volume": 1521000.1, "trend": 136.019612, "fair_value": 113.730326, "relative_strength": -1.031023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.080362, "energy": 63.675572, "activity_lines": [ 144.079333, 142.914173, 141.331654, 138.771418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }