{ "ticker": { "uuid": "414b6abc-58b1-4101-8c87-311a2c55c64f", "symbol": "WAG", "name": "The Australian Wealth Advisors Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 81.865, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.791, "architecture_energy": 73.143, "architecture_maturity": 11.99, "architecture_confidence": 88.742, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.68, "rotation_up": 18.35, "upward_expansion": 18.19, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 58.95, "downward_expansion": 89.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.571, 0.572182, 0.579786, 0.584118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.575, "trend_reference": 0.589667, "distance_from_trend": -0.024873, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.416231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.381445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.220706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.025424, "excess_performance": -0.089129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008964, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.381445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215157, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025424, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.714268, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.714268, "dry_up": 0.101816, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014047, "annualized_volatility": 0.291979, "from_high_reference": -0.128788, "from_low_reference": 0.642857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.589667, "fair_value_reference": 0.416231, "structural_low": 0.55, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.026786, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025179, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.026786, "worst_return": 0.026786, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.367816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026786, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-16", "close": 0.35, "volume": 414234, 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-47.82052, "energy": 40.31733, "activity_lines": [ 0.580333, 0.589364, 0.589048, 0.591796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.56, "volume": 1903, "typical_volume": 10070.65, "trend": 0.5925, "fair_value": 0.411349, "relative_strength": 1.480062, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.768968, "energy": 67.266375, "activity_lines": [ 0.571667, 0.583545, 0.585857, 0.589645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.56, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9399.6, "trend": 0.591667, "fair_value": 0.41252, "relative_strength": 0.924266, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.595689, "energy": 73.469358, "activity_lines": [ 0.566, 0.577909, 0.582857, 0.587548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.57, "volume": 3623, "typical_volume": 9560.55, "trend": 0.591, "fair_value": 0.41375, "relative_strength": 2.424388, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.581342, "energy": 71.182662, "activity_lines": [ 0.565667, 0.574818, 0.581214, 0.586151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.575, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 9561.0, "trend": 0.5905, "fair_value": 0.415, "relative_strength": 0.372481, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.876659, "energy": 65.78645, "activity_lines": [ 0.568667, 0.573182, 0.580357, 0.585118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.575, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8918.05, "trend": 0.589667, "fair_value": 0.416231, "relative_strength": -3.220706, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.791473, "energy": 73.142542, "activity_lines": [ 0.571, 0.572182, 0.579786, 0.584118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }