{ "ticker": { "uuid": "414fd297-0fdf-4c05-8873-686f5794219a", "symbol": "TH", "name": "Target Hospitality Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.575, "architecture_energy": 26.295, "architecture_maturity": 77.215, "architecture_confidence": 91.292, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.05, "rotation_up": 17.47, "upward_expansion": 53.1, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 39.86, "downward_expansion": 21.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.165333, 17.094545, 17.080143, 15.680301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.51, "trend_reference": 13.448, "distance_from_trend": 0.227692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.094231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.635588, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.775872, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.270977, "excess_performance": 1.083523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.227692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.322277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.635588, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068201, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.327759, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.270977, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751796, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5828396, "relative_activity": 0.871769, "balance": 0.751796, "dry_up": 0.735872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113856, "annualized_volatility": 0.754416, "from_high_reference": -0.208153, "from_low_reference": 1.765494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.448, "fair_value_reference": 10.094231, "structural_low": 6.38, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.049676, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.012892, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 1.446619, "worst_return": -0.223936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.140712, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.07838, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.245552, "worst_return": -0.190065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077754, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.069661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.69395, "worst_return": -0.159218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080711, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.211306, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127894, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129076, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.310016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.163545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086184, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.41, "volume": 2565710, "typical_volume": 2651689.25, "trend": 14.301333, "fair_value": 7.37186, "relative_strength": -7.083267, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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63.668952, "activity_lines": [ 18.880667, 18.47, 16.837476, 14.840151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.36, "volume": 4256785, "typical_volume": 6318215.8, "trend": 12.681333, "fair_value": 10.040897, "relative_strength": 40.957248, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.05783, "energy": 46.17097, "activity_lines": [ 17.983333, 18.160545, 16.984619, 15.095269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.15, "volume": 3125078, "typical_volume": 6386020.2, "trend": 12.937, "fair_value": 10.063013, "relative_strength": 39.857852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.128354, "energy": 27.330263, "activity_lines": [ 17.152, 17.794182, 17.070952, 15.319054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.2, "volume": 6469050, "typical_volume": 6519508.4, "trend": 13.173667, "fair_value": 10.077756, "relative_strength": 29.636783, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.960292, "energy": 27.099428, "activity_lines": [ 16.271333, 17.300727, 17.02719, 15.465054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.51, "volume": 5828396, "typical_volume": 6685714.6, "trend": 13.448, "fair_value": 10.094231, "relative_strength": 32.775872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.574884, "energy": 26.294795, "activity_lines": [ 16.165333, 17.094545, 17.080143, 15.680301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }